MP Materials Soars 22%—What’s Fueling This Rare Earth Rally?

• MP Materials shares surge 22.2% to $59.29, hitting a 52-week high of $62.87
• Landmark $500M Apple partnership announced for U.S.-sourced recycled rare earth magnets
• Volume soars to $65.8M, 54.99% turnover rate signals investor frenzy
• Dynamic PE ratio turns deeply negative (-107.03), reflecting aggressive growth expectations

The explosive rally reflects a paradigm shift in U.S. rare earth strategy as MP's deal with Apple positions it as a linchpin of domestic supply chains. Shares have surged from $52.90 intraday lows to near $63 highs, fueled by strategic partnerships and geopolitical tailwinds.

Apple’s $500M Commitment Ignites Rare Earth Revolution
The 22% surge is directly tied to MP Materials’ landmark partnership with Apple to supply domestically-sourced 100% recycled rare earth magnets. This $500M deal marks a historic pivot toward U.S. manufacturing dominance in critical minerals, leveraging MP’s Mountain Pass mine and Fort Worth magnet facilities. The collaboration’s emphasis on circular supply chains aligns with Apple’s sustainability goals, creating a multi-year revenue stream for MP. Technical validation comes from the 52-week high breach and RSI entering overbought territory (69.8), signaling aggressive buying momentum.

Bullish Technicals and High-Impact Options for the Rally
• MACD: 3.84 vs 2.68 signal line confirms bullish momentum
• RSI: 69.8 (overbought, but sustained above 65 suggests momentum dominance)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper band at $45.94 broken decisively, signaling volatility expansion
• Moving Averages: 30D $32.06 vs current price reflects 85% above short-term support

Aggressive bulls should target MP20250725C54 (strike $54) with 521% price change ratio and favorable delta (0.84). The $1.16 MACD histogram supports continuation above $55 resistance. For downside protection, MP20250725P60 (strike $60) offers -28% price change with gamma (0.0485) amplifying delta sensitivity. Both contracts exhibit strong liquidity ($522,820 and $462,611 turnover).

Bear in mind theta decay (-0.24 for calls, -0.015 for puts) compresses time value. A 5% upside scenario to $62.25 would give C54 +13% intrinsic value gain, while P60’s put payoff remains limited unless prices retreat sharply. Aggressive investors: Layer into MP20250725C54 calls above $58.50.

Backtest MP Materials Stock Performance
The backtest of Mosaic Programming (MP) performance after a 22% intraday surge shows mixed results, with varying win rates and returns over different time frames:1. Short-Term Performance: The 3-day win rate is 47.40%, indicating that approximately half of the time, the stock price increases within 3 days of the surge. The average return over 3 days is 0.18%.2. Medium-Term Performance: The 10-day win rate is 50.00%, suggesting a higher probability of positive returns compared to the 3-day win rate. The average return over 10 days is also 0.18%.3. Long-Term Performance: The 30-day win rate is 48.96%, which is slightly lower than the 10-day win rate. The average return over 30 days is 0.29%, with a maximum return of 0.59% on day 45.In conclusion, while there is a higher probability of positive returns in the short to medium term after a 22% intraday surge in MP, the overall returns are relatively modest, with the highest return being 0.59% over 30 days. This suggests that while there is potential for gains, investors should have reasonable expectations and consider other factors before making investment decisions.

Rare Earth Dominance or Overheated Rally? Watch These Signals
MP Materials’ meteoric rise faces two critical tests: execution risks of scaling Texas magnet production and potential overvaluation given the -107 PE ratio. While Apple’s commitment provides structural tailwinds, traders must monitor the $55-$57 resistance cluster (prior 30D upper Bollinger) and Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) -3.8% sector underperformance. Immediate focus: Sustained trading above $58.50 validates the bullish breakout. If momentum stalls below $55, rotation into sector laggards like FCX may accelerate. Final call: This is a buy-the-dip opportunity until the $52.90 July lows are breached—MP’s rare earth narrative remains too powerful to ignore.