MP Materials: The Linchpin of U.S. Rare Earth Independence

The race to secure control over rare earth metals—the unsung heroes of modern technology—has become a geopolitical battleground. With China dominating 90% of global rare earth processing and 60% of production, the U.S. faces a stark vulnerability in its supply chain for everything from iPhones to fighter jets. Enter MP Materials, the nation's sole rare earth producer, which is now at the center of a historic effort to reshape this dynamic.

In 2025, MP Materials has struck transformative deals with two of the most influential entities in American industry: Apple and the Department of Defense (DOD). Together, these partnerships signal a turning point in the U.S. push for self-sufficiency in critical minerals.

The Apple Deal: A $500M Bet on Domestic Magnets

Apple's $500 million investment in MP Materials isn't just about securing rare earth magnets for iPhones and AirPods—it's a strategic move to insulate Apple's supply chain from geopolitical risks. The tech giant has prepaid $200 million for magnet shipments starting in 2027, ensuring a steady supply of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr)-based magnets, which are critical for high-performance devices.

The partnership also involves advanced recycling technology developed over five years to meet Apple's strict standards. By 2028, MP's Texas-based Independence plant will produce 10,000 metric tons of magnets annually, using 100% recycled materials sourced from post-industrial and end-of-life products. This closed-loop system not only aligns with Apple's sustainability goals but also reduces reliance on raw material extraction—a win for both profit margins and environmental stewardship.

The DOD's Strategic Stake: National Security at Stake

The DOD's $400 million investment in MP Materials marks a bold escalation of U.S. supply chain defense. By acquiring up to a 15% stake, the DOD has positioned itself as MP's largest shareholder, securing a decade-long price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr and an offtake agreement for all Texas plant output. This guarantees MP's financial stability, shielding it from market volatility that has historically plagued rare earth producers.

The implications are profound. The magnets MP produces will power defense systems—from missiles to fighter jets—reducing reliance on foreign suppliers. As China continues to weaponize its mineral dominance, the DOD's move underscores the rare earth crisis as a national security issue.

A Double-Edged Sword: Risks and Rewards

MP's path to dominance isn't without hurdles. The rare earth market is volatile, with oversupply and price swings threatening profitability. However, the DOD's price guarantees and Apple's prepaid commitments provide a safety net. Regulatory challenges, such as permitting delays for the Texas plant, could also slow progress.

Yet the upside is undeniable. By 2028, MP's combined production capacity (including its Mountain Pass mine and the new 10X facility) will make it the largest U.S. rare earth processor, capable of meeting domestic demand for magnets in EVs, clean energy, and defense.

Investment Takeaways: A Play for the Long Game

MP Materials is now a critical link in the U.S. supply chain, backed by two of the most powerful institutions in the country. For investors, this is a multi-year bet on the geopolitical realignment of mineral markets.

• Bull Case: MP's partnerships create a stable revenue stream and a first-mover advantage in domestic rare earth production. With the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act and DOD funding, MP could become the go-to supplier for both corporate giants and the military.
• Bear Case: Overcapacity in global markets and delays in scaling recycling operations could strain margins.
• Key Metrics to Watch: MP's stock performance relative to rare earth prices (e.g., NdPr) and its ability to meet Texas plant production targets by 2028.

Conclusion: The New Mineral Order

MP Materials is no longer just a rare earth miner—it's a linchpin of U.S. industrial strategy. With Apple and the DOD as anchors, the company is rewriting the rules of a market long dominated by China. For investors seeking exposure to national security and clean energy trends, MP represents a rare opportunity to profit from a tectonic shift in global supply chains.

In a world where minerals are the new oil, MP's partnerships are more than deals—they're a declaration of independence.