MP Materials: A Cornerstone in the U.S. Rare Earths Supply Chain

The global race for critical minerals has intensified as nations grapple with the dual imperatives of decarbonization and national security. At the heart of this transformation lies MP Materials (MP), a company uniquely positioned to reshape the U.S. rare earths supply chain. With a strategic alliance with the Department of Defense (DoD), a multibillion-dollar investment from Apple, and a bold expansion plan, MP is not just a supplier of rare earths—it is a linchpin in the U.S. effort to secure its industrial future.

Accelerating Production: From 1,000 to 10,000 Metric Tons

MP's current production capacity of 1,000 metric tons per year (ktpa) at its Independence facility in Texas is modest but foundational. However, the company's 10X Facility, slated to begin commissioning in 2028, will amplify this to 10,000 ktpa—a tenfold leap. This expansion is not merely quantitative but strategic. The 10X Facility will be the first U.S. plant to produce high-performance neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets at scale, a critical component for electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and defense systems. By 2028, MP will control 100% of the U.S. NdFeB magnet supply chain, from mining to separation to magnet production—a vertical integration that insulates it from global volatility.

The timeline for this growth is aggressive but achievable. A $150 million DoD loan is already funding the expansion of heavy rare earth separation at Mountain Pass, California, while a $1 billion financing package from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs underwrites the 10X Facility. Crucially, the DoD's 10-year offtake agreement guarantees demand, and a $110/kg price floor for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) ensures stable margins. These safeguards mitigate the risks of market fluctuations, making MP's growth trajectory unusually secure.

Strategic Partnerships: Government and Corporate Alliances

MP's partnerships with the DoD and Apple underscore its role as a national champion. The DoD's $400 million investment in preferred stock—convertible into a 15% stake—positions it as MP's largest shareholder. This is not a passive investment; it is a strategic bet on U.S. industrial resilience. The DoD's offtake agreement ensures that 100% of the 10X Facility's output will be absorbed by defense and commercial clients, creating a predictable revenue stream. For investors, this means MP's growth is less exposed to cyclical demand swings and more aligned with long-term policy priorities.

Apple's $500 million investment, meanwhile, targets recycling and the Fort Worth Magnetics facility. This collaboration aligns with the tech giant's net-zero goals and highlights the growing importance of circular economies in rare earths. By 2027, Apple's demand for MP's magnets will further diversify the company's customer base, reducing reliance on the DoD and opening avenues for commercial scalability.

Long-Term Implications: Industrial Security and Clean Energy

The geopolitical stakes are high. China currently dominates 85% of global rare earth magnet production, a vulnerability the U.S. cannot afford. MP's 10X Facility will close this gap, ensuring a domestic supply of materials critical for defense systems, such as precision-guided munitions and radar technologies. For investors, this translates to a company whose value is tied to national security imperatives—a sector less susceptible to market downturns.

Equally compelling is MP's role in the clean energy transition. NdFeB magnets are indispensable for EV motors and wind turbines. As the U.S. aims to produce 50% of its EVs domestically by 2030, MP's capacity to supply high-performance magnets will be pivotal. The company's partnership with Apple also signals growing corporate interest in ethically sourced, U.S.-produced materials—a trend likely to accelerate as ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards tighten.

Investment Considerations

MP's financials reflect its strategic importance. The company's EBITDA is projected to surge from $150 million in 2025 to over $1.2 billion by 2028, driven by the 10X Facility and DoD contracts. However, investors must weigh execution risks, such as delays in construction or regulatory hurdles. The stock's volatility——reflects these uncertainties, but the long-term fundamentals are robust.

For a diversified portfolio, MP offers exposure to two megatrends: decarbonization and national security. Its partnerships with the DoD and Apple provide a moat against competition, while its vertically integrated supply chain ensures pricing power. Investors with a 5–10 year horizon should consider MP as a core holding, particularly as the 10X Facility nears completion.

Conclusion

MP Materials is more than a rare earths miner—it is a catalyst for U.S. industrial independence. By 2028, its 10,000 ktpa capacity will redefine the domestic supply chain, securing critical materials for defense and clean energy. With government backing, corporate alliances, and a clear path to scale, MP is poised to deliver outsized returns for investors who recognize its strategic value. In an era of geopolitical fragmentation, companies like MP are not just survivors—they are builders of the new industrial order.