MovieBloc/Tether (MBLUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.002043 to 0.00204 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Volume surged to 121M in the last candle, but turnover failed to confirm strength.
• RSI remains neutral while MACD flattens, suggesting fading momentum.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed post-ET, hinting at potential reversal.
• Volatility remained compressed within Bollinger Bands, with no clear breakout.

MovieBloc/Tether (MBLUSDT) opened at 0.002043 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00204 by 12:00 ET the next day, with a high of 0.002043 and a low of 0.002012. The pair traded 136,455,430 units with a notional turnover of approximately $279,381. The 24-hour session saw a bearish bias but ended with a potential reversal pattern.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours shows a choppy, range-bound session with a key support level forming around 0.002024–0.002025 and a resistance level near 0.002035–0.002036. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the last candle, signaling potential short-term reversal. Additionally, a doji formed at 0.00203 around 05:45 ET, indicating indecision at that critical level. The price action suggests a potential consolidation phase before a breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA is currently above the 50-period SMA, suggesting a minor bearish tilt, while the 50-period line is slowly catching up, indicating potential equilibrium. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 200-period SMA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend. However, the 100-period line is closely approaching the 50-period, pointing to possible short-term stabilization.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is flat, with the histogram showing very low momentum and no clear divergence. The 15-minute RSI is at 52, indicating a neutral zone with no overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that the pair may lack strong directional bias in the near term. However, the last bullish engulfing pattern could push RSI slightly above 55, suggesting a potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remains tightly compressed within the Bollinger Bands, with price hovering near the midline for much of the session. A break above the upper band would be needed to confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below the lower band could signal a bearish continuation. The current price is within the 1σ range, which typically indicates consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume picked up notably in the last few hours, especially around 16:00–17:00 ET, but notional turnover failed to match the volume increase, signaling possible divergence. The largest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 15:45 ET with 12.12M units traded, but the price failed to show a strong reaction. This divergence suggests that heavy volume may have been used to manipulate the price or to accumulate at lower levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the last 15-minute swing from 0.002012 to 0.002051, the 38.2% level is at 0.002035, the 50% at 0.002032, and the 61.8% at 0.002028. The price found support at the 61.8% level before rebounding, which aligns with the bullish engulfing pattern. A break above the 38.2% level could signal a test of the resistance at 0.002035–0.002036.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy relies on a confluence of three signals: a bullish engulfing candle at the end of a consolidation phase, RSI re-entering the 55–60 range, and a closing above the 38.2% Fibonacci level. These conditions were all observed during the 15-minute candle on 2025-09-24 at 16:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. If the strategy is applied using these signals, it would have triggered a long entry with a stop-loss placed just below the doji at 0.00203 and a target at 0.002042–0.002043. The setup is valid for a short-term trade but carries risk if the consolidation fails to break out.