MovieBloc/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-04

Summary
• Price declined sharply overnight, forming bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as price dropped below key support.
• Divergences between volume and price suggest increased bear pressure.

MovieBloc/Tether (MBLUSDT) opened at $0.001211 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.001236, and closed at $0.001189 by the same time the next day. Total 24-hour volume was 1,071,761,632.9, and turnover amounted to $1,299,203. The price action reflects heightened bear pressure and key support levels were tested overnight.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a series of bearish structures overnight, particularly after 22:00 ET, where a strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged. This pattern, coupled with a breakdown below the 0.001210 support level, suggests increased distribution pressure. A doji formed early in the session but failed to hold the key level, reinforcing bear dominance. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest the 61.8% level at $0.001207 may act as a temporary floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned downward, confirming the bearish bias. For the daily chart, the price closed below all three key MAs (50, 100, 200-period), reinforcing a medium-term bearish setup. The 50/200 crossover is a bearish signal, suggesting momentum is likely to persist.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and the histogram expanded, indicating accelerating bear momentum. RSI dropped below 40 and approached oversold territory near 30, though with caution: while RSI is oversold, the price continues lower, suggesting bears remain in control. This is a classic bear trap setup where a rebound may be delayed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded overnight, with price breaking below the lower band, signaling a breakout to the downside. The contraction of Bollinger Bands earlier in the session gave way to an expansion after 23:00 ET, reinforcing the move. Price now resides near the lower band, consistent with a strong bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakout, especially after 22:00 ET, confirming the move. Notional turnover (volume × price) rose in tandem with price decline, indicating aggressive selling. However, in the last few hours of the session, volume declined slightly, suggesting exhaustion of bear pressure or potential consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.001207 has acted as a temporary floor, but with continued selling pressure, the 50% level at $0.001223 is in play. On the 15-minute chart, a key swing from $0.001236 to $0.001189 suggests a 61.8% retracement target at $0.001215 for a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest using the bearish-engulfing pattern could be executed by deriving the signal from the provided OHLC data. With the current dataset, I can manually compute each 15-minute candle to identify the engulfing patterns and run the backtest accordingly. This approach ensures accuracy without relying on the failed automated feed. Using the 2025-11-03 session as a sample, a valid bearish-engulfing pattern appears at 22:30 ET, which could have triggered a short signal. A backtest across a historical dataset would quantify the profitability of this pattern in this pair.