Movement/Tether Market Overview (MOVEUSDT) – 2025-09-19

• Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) ended the 24-hour period at 0.1284, down from the 12:00 ET open of 0.1361 amid bearish momentum.
• Price fell below key support levels, with a 6.4% drop and a 24-hour high of 0.1369.
• Volatility expanded with a 24-hour low of 0.1263, signaling a potential reversal or continuation of the downtrend.
• RSI is in oversold territory, while volume spiked during the selloff, suggesting exhaustion or panic.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest a possible bounce near 0.1282–0.1285 or further downside toward 0.1264.

24-Hour Price Action

Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) opened at 0.1361 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.1369 before entering a sustained downtrend. Price closed at 0.1284 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour low of 0.1263. Total volume reached 10,841,638.5, and notional turnover stood at approximately 1,394,019.6. The price action suggests bearish continuation, with a strong short-term selloff observed.

Structure & Formations

Price broke through a key support level at 0.1340 and continued to fall, forming a bearish engulfing pattern as it closed below 0.1320. A large bearish candle at 0.1314 confirmed the breakdown. A potential double-bottom is forming around 0.1263–0.1274, with a possible bullish reversal if the price holds above that level. A doji appeared at 0.1291 on 2025-09-19 at 03:00 ET, suggesting temporary indecision in the market.

MACD & RSI

The RSI is currently at 28, signaling oversold conditions, but momentum remains negative. MACD is below the signal line with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. However, a divergence in the RSI and price around 0.1263–0.1274 could indicate a potential reversal if volume confirms it.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading near the lower band for most of the 24-hour period, confirming high volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands was observed between 0.1320 and 0.1330, followed by a sharp breakout to the downside. If price remains near the lower band, it suggests the downtrend may continue for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines are descending, with the price below all of them. This confirms that the asset is in a medium-term downtrend, and a close above 0.1295 would be needed to challenge the 50-day SMA as a potential support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1369 to 0.1263, price has reached the 78.6% level at 0.1279 and is approaching the 88.6% level at 0.1264. A bounce is expected from the 0.1264 level, with the 61.8% retracement (0.1287) as a potential target. A close above 0.1295 would suggest a retracement to the 38.2% level at 0.1298.

Forward-Looking View and Risk

The next 24 hours may present a critical juncture for Movement/Tether as the market tests support at 0.1264. A break below this level could extend the downtrend toward 0.1250, while a recovery above 0.1285 may signal a short-term bounce. Investors should remain cautious, as volatility remains elevated and trend continuation is likely unless a strong reversal signal emerges with volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to leverage the identified Fibonacci levels and RSI overbought/oversold conditions to time potential reversals or trend continuation. The approach involves entering short positions when price closes below the 61.8% retracement level and RSI dips into oversold territory, with stops placed above the 78.6% level. Longs are considered if price breaks above the 38.2% level with increasing volume and RSI divergence. This strategy aligns with the current bearish structure but hinges on strong volume and confirmation at key levels.