Movement/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-08

• Movement/Tether declined to a 24-hour low near 0.1086, forming bearish momentum after a large-volume sell-off.
• Strong bearish divergence emerged on RSI and MACD, suggesting oversold conditions could persist.
• Volatility expanded during the afternoon ET selloff, with Bollinger Bands reflecting wide price dispersion.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:45 ET, confirming a key reversal from bullish to bearish bias.
• Notional turnover spiked sharply around 19:15 ET, highlighting aggressive liquidation and distribution pressure.

Movement/Tether (MOVEUSDT) opened at 0.1120 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1138, a low of 0.1082, and closed at 0.1086 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 6,529,830.8, while notional turnover was $737,450.82. A bearish breakdown occurred mid-day, with aggressive selling pressure evident.

Structure & Formations

Price moved into a descending channel from around 0.1130 to 0.1082 over the 24-hour period, with support forming at 0.1086 and a key resistance level at 0.1115. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:45 ET, confirming a reversal from bullish to bearish. The session closed near the session low, forming a long lower wick at 0.1123. A potential bearish continuation is signaled if price stays below 0.1106, with the next target near 0.1075.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with the 20 MA below the 50 MA (death cross) reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at ~0.1120 and the 200-period MA at ~0.1100 suggest a bearish bias, with price currently below both. A retest of the 0.1115 level could trigger a temporary bounce if bullish momentum reemerges.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish with a negative divergence as price declined but momentum remained weak. RSI entered oversold territory in the final hours, hovering around 25, which suggests a potential short-term bounce but not a reversal. The bearish momentum remains intact, and any rally should be treated with caution until a positive divergence is confirmed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the afternoon sell-off, reflecting heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at 0.1086, indicating oversold conditions. A rebound above the middle band (~0.1105) could trigger a short-term bounce, but the upper band remains at 0.1124–0.1125, which must be decisively broken for a bullish reversal to be confirmed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the afternoon ET selloff, particularly around 19:15 ET, with a block of 1.4367 million units traded at 0.1123, indicating aggressive liquidation. Notional turnover spiked in tandem, confirming distribution pressure. Price and turnover moved in alignment, suggesting conviction in the downward trend. Divergence is not evident at this stage.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1120 to 0.1082, key levels include 0.1098 (38.2%), 0.1106 (50%), and 0.1110 (61.8%). The 0.1106 level acted as a temporary floor but failed to hold. On a daily basis, the 61.8% retracement is near 0.1098, which could be a potential support level ahead of the next 24-hour cycle.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve shorting on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation with volume and RSI in oversold territory. Entry could be triggered at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop above the high of the pattern and a target at the next Fibonacci level below. Given the current price structure, this pattern occurred around 19:45 ET and could have been used to capture a 0.1110–0.1095 range. The strategy would require further refinement for filter rules to avoid false signals during high volatility periods.