MOVE's 15% Midday Surge and Hyperliquid's Impact: Assessing the Sustainability of the Rally Amid Rising Volume and Mixed On-Chain Signals

The recent 15% midday surge in the price of the MOVE token, coinciding with its listing on Hyperliquid, has sparked intense debate about the sustainability of the rally. While the surge was fueled by a dramatic spike in on-chain volume and active address growth, mixed technical signals and structural risks raise questions about whether this marks a genuine inflection point for the token or a short-lived speculative spike.

Hyperliquid's Role in the Surge: A Catalyst for Liquidity and Adoption

Hyperliquid's listing of MOVE acted as a direct catalyst for the price movement. The platform's high-performance infrastructure, including its Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) and HyperBFT blockchain, enabled it to process up to 200,000 orders per second, bridging the gap between decentralized and centralized exchanges. This technological edge, combined with a $15 billion open interest and $47 billion in weekly trading volumes by mid-2025, attracted both retail and institutional traders. The surge in trading volume for MOVE-497% post-listing- reflects Hyperliquid's ability to amplify market interest.

However, the platform's impact extends beyond mere trading volume. Hyperliquid's tokenomics strategy, including a $1 billion HYPE token burn (removing 13% of the circulating supply) and the launch of USDH, a reserve-backed stablecoin, has redefined HYPE's utility. These moves aim to create a deflationary model and attract traditional finance inflows. For MOVE, the integration with Hyperliquid's ecosystem-such as Circle's expansion of USDC on HyperEVM-further enhances capital efficiency and liquidity, positioning the token as a cornerstone of decentralized finance (DeFi) innovation.

Leverage and Volatility: A Double-Edged Sword

The surge in MOVE's price was accompanied by elevated leverage usage on Hyperliquid. Whales on the platform typically employ a mean leverage of ~6.9x, with short-term positioning strategies that align with macroeconomic expectations. While this high leverage can amplify gains, it also introduces liquidity shocks akin to monetary stimulus events, exacerbating price volatility.

Technical indicators underscore this risk. The MACD for MOVE shows strong sell signals, suggesting a potential pullback or sideways movement. Additionally, the token's price is below key moving averages (30-day SMA at $0.0691 and 200-day SMA at $0.1355), with an RSI-14 of 34.91 nearing oversold levels. These signals indicate that while short-term buyers may step in, the broader trend remains bearish.

Active Address Growth: A Mixed Signal

Hyperliquid's active address growth in 2025-adding 609,700 new users and processing $2.95 trillion in cumulative trading volume- suggests robust adoption. The number of unique addresses interacting with Hyperliquid's smart contracts grew consistently, reflecting organic engagement. However, this growth must be contextualized. While the 25% increase in active addresses during December 2025 is encouraging, it coincided with a broader bearish market environment, where the Fear & Greed Index hit an extreme fear level of 16. This dichotomy highlights the fragility of user growth in a volatile market.

Price Resistance and Structural Risks

MOVE's price dynamics reveal critical resistance levels that could determine the rally's sustainability. The token faces a key resistance at $0.0585, with additional barriers at $0.0400 (R1) and $0.0372 (S1). A breakdown below $0.0350 (S2) would signal significant bearish momentum. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's HYPE token, often conflated with MOVE in analyses, faces resistance at $27–$30 and support at $21–$24. These levels are critical for assessing whether the rally is driven by genuine demand or speculative fervor.

Structural risks further complicate the outlook. Hyperliquid's monthly unlocks of ~9.9M HYPE tokens (valued at ~$236M at current prices) through 2027 pose persistent selling pressure. While the $1 billion token burn is a positive structural change, it may not offset the impact of these unlocks. Additionally, 23 out of 27 technical indicators favor a downward trajectory for HYPE, amplifying bearish sentiment.

Conclusion: Inflection Point or Speculative Spike?

The Hyperliquid listing undeniably acted as a catalyst for MOVE's 15% surge, driven by improved liquidity, active address growth, and strategic tokenomics. However, the rally's sustainability hinges on navigating mixed on-chain signals and structural risks. While the platform's innovations-such as USDH and HyperEVM-position it as a leader in DeFi, the bearish technical indicators, high leverage usage, and ongoing token unlocks suggest that the rally may be short-lived.

For investors, the key lies in monitoring whether Hyperliquid can maintain user growth, manage liquidity effectively, and navigate the bearish technical landscape. If the platform can defend critical support levels and sustain active address growth, the rally could evolve into a genuine inflection point. Otherwise, it may remain a speculative spike in a volatile market.