Mosaic Shares Plunge 5.3% as Earnings Miss Weak Demand and Institutional Exodus Weigh Surging to 371st in Market Activity on 370M Turnover

Market Snapshot

Mosaic (MOS) shares fell 5.30% on February 25, 2026, trading at $26.7410 in midday trading after hitting an intraday low of $26.52. The stock’s trading volume surged 91.4% to $370 million, ranking it 371st in market activity. This sharp decline followed the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which revealed a GAAP net loss of $519 million and adjusted earnings of $0.22 per share, both falling below Wall Street expectations.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst for Mosaic’s selloff was its Q4 earnings shortfall, driven by weak North American fertilizer demand and lower-than-anticipated sales volumes. The company reported quarterly revenue of $2.97 billion, missing analyst forecasts of $3.02 billion. Phosphate and potash sales volumes declined significantly year-over-year, with phosphate shipments down 20% to 1.3 million tonnes and potash volumes at 2.2 million tonnes. These figures underscored persistent challenges in the agricultural sector, where softer demand and higher input costs have pressured margins.

Management’s outlook for 2026 further dampened investor sentiment. Mosaic projected phosphate sales volumes of 1.7–1.9 million tonnes and potash volumes of 2–2.2 million tonnes for Q1 2026, below prior-year levels. The company also highlighted weaker gross margins across its segments, with phosphate gross margin dropping to $17 per ton from $85 in the year-ago period. These developments prompted analysts to revise earnings expectations downward, contributing to the stock’s decline.

Institutional investor activity amplified the sell-off. Major hedge funds and asset managers, including Bank of New York Mellon Corp and Two Sigma Advisers, significantly reduced their stakes in Q4 2025, trimming positions by 46.6% and 96.6%, respectively. Conversely, firms like FMR LLC and Goldman Sachs added to their holdings, suggesting a mixed outlook. This divergence in institutional sentiment reflects uncertainty about Mosaic’s ability to recover in a weak market environment.

Analyst ratings, while cautiously optimistic, did little to offset the negative earnings surprise. Three firms—Scotiabank, UBS, and Barclays—maintained “Buy” or “Overweight” ratings, with median price targets around $32. However, recent price target cuts from JPMorgan and others indicated growing caution. Mosaic’s P/E ratio of 6.94, while attractive relative to industry peers, failed to compensate for the near-term headwinds highlighted in the earnings report.

The selloff also coincided with broader market concerns about global fertilizer demand. Mosaic’s business is highly sensitive to agricultural cycles, and the Q4 results reinforced worries about oversupply and weak crop prices in key markets like North America. While the company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share (3.3% yield), the payout did not offset the earnings disappointment or management’s muted guidance for 2026.

In summary, Mosaic’s stock fell sharply due to a combination of disappointing earnings, weak sales volumes, and a bearish institutional outlook. The fertilizer producer faces near-term challenges in a low-demand environment, though long-term analysts remain cautiously optimistic about its position in the sector. Investors will likely monitor the company’s ability to navigate these headwinds and restore profitability in the coming quarters.