Mosaic's Q2 2025: Unpacking Contradictions in Phosphate and Potash Production Dynamics

Phosphate volumes and production challenges, potash production and cost reductions, hurricane preparedness and impact on operations, phosphate production and demand, potash production and costs are the key contradictions discussed in The Mosaic Company's latest 2025Q2 earnings call.



Improved Production and Market Strength:
- Mosaic's net income for Q2 2025 was $411 million, compared to a net loss of $162 million in Q2 2024.
- The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $566 million compared to $584 million in the previous year.
- The improvement was driven by increased demand and tight supply in both potash and phosphate markets, leading to strong margins.

Phosphate Production and Cost Management:
- Mosaic's third-quarter sales volume guidance is 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes, reflecting confidence in production capabilities.
- The company's annual phosphate production guidance is 6.9 million to 7.2 million tonnes due to maintenance downtime.
- The guidance reflects improvements in production reliability after significant maintenance and upgrade activities.

Potash Market Dynamics:
- Mosaic increased its annual potash production guidance to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tonnes due to strong global demand.
- The market shifted from balanced to tight due to reduced supply and continued high palm oil prices in Southeast Asia.
- The company's production capacity expansion, such as the hydrofloat project, is expected to support increased production.

Brazil Business and Cost Reductions:
- Mosaic Fertilizantes segment showed strong performance, with EBITDA expected to push higher in the remainder of the year.
- The company achieved $106 million of a $150 million cost reduction target.
- The positive performance is attributed to cost reductions, higher realized prices, and expected increased market access through new facilities like Palmeirante.