Mortgage Rates Dip 0.06% Amid Slowing Job Growth

Mortgage rates in the first week of June 2025 saw notable fluctuations, with refinancing rates experiencing a slight increase. On June 10, 2025, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage for purchases was 6.90%, while for refinances it was 6.97%. This marked a decrease of 7 basis points from the previous day's purchase rate and an increase of 8 basis points for refinances. The 30-year mortgage rates had dipped to a 7.00% average on June 10, 2025, following a two-day rise. The average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was 6.11%, and the 5/1 ARM averaged 6.16%.

Employment data released on June 6, 2025, indicated a slowing job growth, with 139,000 jobs added in May 2025, a decrease of 10,000 jobs year-over-year. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but the participation rate decreased by 0.2%, suggesting fewer individuals were actively seeking employment. This data preceded the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on June 17 and 18, 2025, with many anticipating a rate cut. However, the chief economist and senior vice president for the Mortgage Bankers Association stated that these data aligned with market expectations and were likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for the next meeting or two. The economist also forecasted that if the job market weakened further this summer, there could be two cuts to the federal funds target this year.

On June 9, 2025, mortgage rates fell across all terms compared to the previous week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased by 0.06% to 6.87%, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate dipped by 0.02% to 6.09%, and the 5/1 ARM rate fell by 0.03% to 6.18%. The 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate also saw a slight decrease of 0.01% to 6.89%. These rate changes reflected a broader trend of declining mortgage rates, which had been on the rise in the preceding days.

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate on June 10, 2025, was 6.94%, up 5 basis points from the previous week. This increase came despite a general downward trend in mortgage rates, highlighting the volatility in the refinancing market. The current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.87%, down 6 basis points from the previous week. At this rate, borrowers would pay $656.59 per $100,000 borrowed, a decrease of $4.02 from the previous week. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.09%, down 2 basis points, resulting in monthly payments of $849 per $100,000 borrowed. The 5/1 ARM rate was 6.18%, down 3 basis points, with monthly payments of $611 per $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years. The jumbo mortgage rate was 6.89%, a decrease of 1 basis point, with monthly payments of $657.93 per $100,000 borrowed.

The recent minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting highlighted concerns about the economic effects of tariffs, particularly stagflation and unemployment. Historically, mortgage rates tend to decrease in a down or uncertain economy. Additionally, the tax bill could exacerbate the debt and deficit issue, potentially impacting mortgage rates in the intermediate and long terms. Prospective homebuyers should expect rates to remain near 6.8% for the remainder of 2025, according to the forecast.