Mortgage Rates Defy Fed Cuts as Data Vacuum Fuels Uncertainty

The average U.S. mortgage refinance rate for a 30-year fixed loan [stood at 6.73%](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/todays-mortgage-interest-rates-november-26-2025/) as of November 26, 2025, according to Zillow, reflecting a marginal increase from 6.66% the prior week. For 15-year terms, the rate [dipped slightly to 5.65%](https://fortune.com/article/current-refi-mortgage-rates-12-01-2025/) from 5.68%. While these figures remain elevated compared to pre-2023 levels, homeowners with existing rates of 7% or higher may still find refinancing opportunities appealing, analysts note. Meanwhile, [Fortune reported](https://fortune.com/article/current-refi-mortgage-rates-12-01-2025/) a more nuanced picture, with conventional 30-year refi rates at 6.27% as of November 28, underscoring the variability across lenders and loan types.

Market observers are closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, with December 2025 positioning as a pivotal month. The central bank has cut its benchmark rate twice this year, but mortgage rates remain near 14-month highs. Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, [cautions that "a rate cut by the Fed doesn't necessarily translate to lower mortgage rates"](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rate-forecast-november-2023-140556792.html), citing a "data vacuum" caused by the government shutdown and delayed inflation reports. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, adds that the lack of clarity has led to volatility, [with rates rising in recent weeks](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rate-forecast-november-2023-140556792.html) despite the likelihood of a Fed easing.

For homeowners, the calculus of refinancing hinges on several factors. A full percentage point reduction in rates could justify the upfront costs of refinancing, which [typically range from 2% to 6%](https://fortune.com/article/current-refi-mortgage-rates-12-01-2025/) of the loan amount. However, the "lock-in effect" remains strong: 82.8% of homeowners with mortgages still have rates below 6%, according to Redfin, limiting refinancing activity despite recent declines. Those who locked in rates above 7%-common for purchases in late 2022 and 2023- [may see greater value in refinancing](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/todays-mortgage-interest-rates-november-26-2025/), particularly if they can access lower rates through a float-down option offered by some lenders.

The broader economic landscape further complicates projections. [The U.S. construction industry, for instance, faces a 2.7% contraction](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/01/3196744/28124/en/US-Construction-Industry-Report-2025-Output-to-Register-an-AAGR-of-1-9-During-2026-2029-Supported-by-Investments-in-the-Development-of-AI-Infrastructure-Data-Center-Demand-and-Powe.html) in 2025 due to trade policy impacts and rising input costs, per a ResearchAndMarkets report. Yet, long-term investments in AI infrastructure and data centers are expected to drive a 1.9% annual growth in construction output by 2029. Such trends could indirectly influence mortgage rates by shaping demand for housing and commercial real estate.

Looking ahead, the market awaits key economic data releases and the Fed's December policy decision. If inflation data signals sustained cooling, mortgage rates may follow suit. However, Sturtevant warns of continued volatility until more clarity emerges. For now, [homeowners are advised to evaluate their individual circumstances](https://fortune.com/article/current-refi-mortgage-rates-12-01-2025/), including credit scores, debt-to-income ratios, and loan terms, to determine whether refinancing aligns with their financial goals.