Morpho/Tether Market Overview – 2025-11-09

Summary
• MORPHOUSDT opened at 1.766 and closed at 1.835 after hitting a high of 1.860 and a low of 1.757.
• Rising momentum seen with RSI climbing to 62 and volume increasing by 40% midday.
• Key resistance at 1.840–1.860 appears to have been tested but not yet decisively broken.

Morpho/Tether’s MORPHOUSDT pair has experienced a volatile 24-hour session on the 15-minute timeframe, opening at 1.766 and closing at 1.835 as of 12:00 ET. The price reached an intraday high of 1.860 and a low of 1.757, with a total traded volume of 395,618.13 and a notional turnover of $727,351.69. The pair has shown a clear upward bias, especially from the early hours of the morning.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels appear at 1.800 and 1.765, both of which were retested multiple times during the session. Resistance levels at 1.835–1.840 were challenged in the early morning before a push toward 1.860 occurred, though this high was not sustained. Notable candlestick patterns include a strong Bullish Engulfing pattern around 05:30 ET, signaling a short-term bullish reversal, and a Doji near 00:15 ET, indicating indecision.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both been moving upward, with price staying above both for most of the session. This suggests continued short-term bullish momentum, though the 50-period MA appears to be catching up with the 20-period MA, hinting at a possible consolidation phase ahead.

MACD remains in positive territory, with the histogram expanding in the final hours of the session, which confirms sustained bullish momentum. The RSI has climbed to 62, indicating a moderate overbought condition but not yet signaling a potential reversal. Bollinger Bands have widened from the late evening into the early morning, reflecting increased volatility during the upward breakout attempts.

The volume profile shows a significant spike around 05:30–07:00 ET, coinciding with the large bullish move. Turnover increased in line with volume, confirming price action. A divergence in price and volume appears at 03:30–04:00 ET, where volume dipped despite the price continuing to fall slightly, suggesting caution.

Fibonacci retracements from the recent 1.757–1.860 swing show the 61.8% level at 1.836, which was briefly tested and held, indicating that the 1.840–1.860 range may be a key area of psychological and technical resistance. A break above this could target the 1.870–1.900 area, while a retest below 1.800 could trigger further consolidation.

Looking ahead, the market may see a test of the 1.840–1.860 resistance range in the next 24 hours, but a failure to break through could lead to a pullback toward the 1.800–1.780 range. Investors should remain cautious, as high volatility and key resistance could trigger a sharp correction if not supported by volume.

The backtest hypothesis involves identifying the Bullish Engulfing pattern and aligning it with MACD golden-cross signals to determine entry points. The strategy would then hold for three days, benchmarked against HOLD.P, the Harbor Alpha Layering ETF. This approach leverages both price action and momentum indicators to filter high-probability setups in a volatile environment like MORPHOUSDT.