Morpho/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• Price opened at 1.596 and closed at 1.630 after a volatile 24-hour range of 1.544–1.729.
• A key bearish breakdown occurred below 1.577, followed by a sharp rebound above 1.630.
• High volume was observed during the 21:00–03:00 ET selloff, and again during the 05:00–08:00 ET rally.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory and then surged into overbought, suggesting exhaustion in both directions.
• Volatility expanded as price moved between Bollinger Band extremes, indicating a potential shift in trend.

Morpho/Tether (MORPHOUSDT) opened at 1.596 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.630 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The pair traded as low as 1.544 and as high as 1.729 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 23,859,131.34, with a turnover of approximately $38,500,000, based on the average exchange rate. The session was characterized by sharp swings and increased volatility, especially in the late hours of 2025-10-10.

The price structure showed a clear breakdown and recovery pattern. A key support level was identified near 1.544–1.577, where a long bearish candle (21:30 ET) and a deep 1.236% decline in one interval signaled capitulation. A sharp rebound followed from 22:00 ET, with price retesting previous resistance levels and forming a bullish engulfing pattern at 05:00 ET. The 20-period EMA on the 15-min chart crossed above the 50-period EMA in the early hours of 2025-10-11, confirming the short-term bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 21:00–04:00 ET selloff, suggesting rising volatility. Price moved well below the 20-period band, entering a contraction phase before surging back above the band in the early hours of 2025-10-11. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 28 during the selloff and surged above 65 following the bounce, indicating strong short-term momentum. MACD showed a bearish divergence during the selloff but turned bullish in the final hours of the session, suggesting a reversal in near-term sentiment.

The Fibonacci retracement levels for the major swing from 1.729 to 1.544 were critical during the recovery. Price tested the 61.8% retracement at 1.630 during the rebound and found initial resistance at the 78.6% level. Volume during the selloff was significantly higher than during the recovery phase, indicating stronger bearish conviction. However, the rebound occurred on strong volume, particularly between 05:00–08:00 ET, confirming a shift in buying pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 20-period EMA on the 15-min chart after forming a bullish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a MACD crossover and an RSI crossing above 40. The exit rule is a stop-loss at the recent swing low, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding bearish move. The setup was observed during the 05:00–08:00 ET rebound and could be used to validate the effectiveness of this momentum-based approach in volatile markets like Morpho/Tether.

The strategy aligns with the observed technical indicators and appears to capture short-term trend reversals effectively. Traders may consider backtesting this setup using historical data from similar high-volatility conditions to refine risk-to-reward ratios and filter false signals.

In the next 24 hours, traders should monitor the 1.630–1.650 range as a key consolidation zone. A break above 1.650 could target 1.680–1.700, while a retest below 1.630 may lead to renewed volatility. As always, investors should remain cautious of macroeconomic catalysts and potential divergences in volume and momentum indicators.