MORPHO +1212.34% in 24 Hours Amidst Short-Term Surge

On OCT 11 2025, MORPHO experienced a dramatic 1212.34% surge within 24 hours, reaching a price of $1.524. Despite this sharp intraday gain, the token has faced prolonged downward pressure over the past week, month, and year, with each metric reporting a 2035.49% decline. The sudden upswing appears to be driven by a combination of speculative activity and a potential shift in sentiment, though the broader bearish trend remains intact.

The recent price movement contrasts sharply with the extended bearish trajectory that has defined MORPHO’s performance over the past 30 days and beyond. Technical indicators suggest that the surge may be more reflective of short-term liquidity dynamics than a fundamental reversal. Traders have noted increased participation in leveraged trading positions, which may have amplified the one-day rally. However, the token has yet to regain lost ground from previous bear cycles.

On the technical front, the 24-hour rally pushed MORPHO’s price above key resistance levels that had previously acted as barriers to upward movement. This break came with relatively low volume, raising questions about the sustainability of the move. Analysts have noted that the token remains within a broader descending trend channel, and any meaningful reversal would require consistent follow-through beyond current levels. The RSI indicator, now in overbought territory after the sharp move, is being closely watched for signs of a pullback.

Moving averages show mixed signals, with the 50-period line crossing above the 200-period in the short term, hinting at potential momentum. However, the long-term trend remains bearish, with both indicators still trending downward. Traders are analyzing this cross as a possible sign of near-term strength, though caution is advised given the historical volatility and lack of a clear bullish catalyst.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy has been proposed to evaluate potential profit opportunities around recent price volatility. The strategy focuses on technical indicators—RSI, moving averages, and volume—to generate buy and sell signals. A long entry is triggered when the 50-period moving average crosses above the 200-period moving average and RSI exits oversold territory. A short position is initiated if RSI enters overbought conditions while volume contracts, signaling a potential reversal.

This strategy seeks to capture momentum while mitigating risk through stop-loss levels tied to recent swing lows. The hypothesis is that such a framework would have capitalized on the 24-hour rally while managing exposure to the broader downtrend. The backtest will be conducted across multiple timeframes to assess consistency, with an emphasis on risk-adjusted returns and drawdown management.