Morning Market Pulse: Trump Warns Japan on Taiwan, AI Rivalry Intensifies, and Fed Rate Cut Hopes Rise

The pre-market landscape shows a cautiously mixed tone. E-Mini S&P 500 Futures hover near $6,827.75 (-0.00%), while E-mini Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures slip marginally (-0.01% each). Commodity markets diverge: WTI crude oil rallies 0.43% to $58.90, buoyed by Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes, while gold dips 0.35% to $4,187.50 and copper falls 0.71% to $5.1570. Silver, however, gains 0.57% to $53.910.

The mixed signals suggest investors are balancing energy optimism with broader macro caution, particularly as geopolitical tensions and AI sector dynamics dominate headlines. Here’s what to watch today.

1. Trump Warns Japan on Provoking China Over Taiwan

U.S. President Donald Trump urged Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to temper rhetoric on Taiwan, signaling a strategic pivot to preserve U.S.-China trade relations. Takaichi’s earlier comments on Japan’s potential defense response had rattled Beijing. While U.S.-Japan cooperation remains strong, Trump’s message underscores his prioritization of economic detente over regional security posturing. This could ease short-term tensions but risks alienating U.S. allies if China continues to assert dominance in the region.

2. Google’s Gemini 3 AI Challenge to Nvidia: A DeepSeek Moment?

Google’s Gemini 3 AI model is gaining traction, but analysts caution it won’t dethrone Nvidia anytime soon. While Gemini excels in specific tasks, Google’s TPU chips are limited to internal use or cloud leasing, whereas Nvidia’s GPUs dominate cross-industry AI deployment. The AI race remains fragmented, with competitors like ChatGPT (reasoning), Claude (coding), and Grok (empathy) each holding niche advantages. For now, Nvidia’s (NVDA) general-purpose edge keeps it as the de facto standard.

3. Nvidia Chip Ban Deepens: ByteDance’s AI Self-Reliance Push

Chinese regulators have barred TikTok owner ByteDance from using new Nvidia chips in data centers, accelerating Beijing’s push for domestic AI alternatives. This follows broader U.S. semiconductor export restrictions. ByteDance, once the largest Nvidia client in China, now faces hurdles scaling its AI infrastructure. Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledged the regulatory barriers, highlighting the growing tech cold war and the long-term threat to its market share in Asia.

4. JPMorgan Predicts Fed Will Cut Rates in December

JPMorgan Chase revised its forecast to expect a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, citing recent Fedspeak from officials like John Williams. The market now prices in an 80% chance of a cut, driven by soft labor data and resilient but slowing growth. A December cut would mark the Fed’s first rate reduction in over a year, potentially boosting risk assets and easing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

5. TSMC Sues Ex-Executive for Alleged Trade Secret Leak to Intel

TSMC filed a lawsuit against former executive Lo Wei-Jen, accusing him of leaking trade secrets to Intel. Prosecutors raided his homes, seizing devices for evidence. Intel denied involvement, emphasizing its strict IP policies. The case highlights the high-stakes competition in semiconductors and raises questions about TSMC’s (TSMC) ability to protect its cutting-edge manufacturing edge. A ruling could impact both firms’ reputations and R&D strategies.

6. Market Optimism Grows as AI and Crypto Markets Show Bullish Signs

Crypto and AI sectors are rebounding, with Bitcoin surging to $87K and technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout. Analysts highlight TSMC, Micron (MU), Amazon (AMZN), Arm (ARM), and Meta (META) as key plays. The AI-driven optimism is fueled by Google’s Gemini 3 and expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, volatility remains high, and investors should monitor geopolitical risks and regulatory shifts.

7. China Bars 69,000 Tons of Brazilian Soybeans Over Contamination

Chinese authorities blocked Brazilian soybean imports due to contamination, escalating trade tensions. Brazil, a major agricultural supplier to China, could face economic ripple effects. The move underscores China’s strict import controls and its strategic leverage in global supply chains. This could pressure Brazil’s trade balance and test diplomatic relations between the two nations.

8. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Rises Despite Industrial Weakness

Eurozone economic sentiment hit 97.0 in November, driven by services and retail confidence. Industrial activity remains weak, but the European Commission raised its 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%. Germany’s stagnant Q3 growth contrasts with France’s mixed results. The services-driven recovery offers hope, but industrial challenges and export fragility persist.

9. NuScale Power Faces High Volatility Amid SMR Market Growth and Financial Risks

NuScale Power (SMR) is experiencing extreme volatility despite a projected 98% CAGR in revenue. The company’s Q3 loss of $1.85 per share and need for capital raise concerns. While SMR technology is gaining traction, delays in orders and competition from ROSATOM and Westinghouse pose risks. Investors should watch regulatory approvals and capital-raising progress.

10. IMF Warns of Geopolitical and Climate Risks to Global Economy

The IMF highlighted deepening geopolitical fragmentation and climate shocks as major risks to global growth. Ongoing conflicts, trade tensions, and weather disruptions could undermine stability. The warning underscores the need for international cooperation, particularly as the G20 prepares for its 2026 summit. Markets may remain sensitive to geopolitical flare-ups and climate-related disruptions.

Ticker Watchlist

• TSMC (TSMC): Monitor legal risks from the trade secret lawsuit and AI infrastructure demand.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Track regulatory headwinds in China and AI chip competition.
• Google (GOOGL): Watch Gemini 3’s market adoption and cloud revenue growth.
• Amazon (AMZN): Assess AI-driven AWS growth and e-commerce resilience.
• Micron (MU): Evaluate memory chip demand and semiconductor cycle dynamics.
• Intel (INTC): Monitor TSMC’s lawsuit and its impact on R&D partnerships.
• NuScale Power (SMR): Focus on capital-raising progress and SMR deployment timelines.

Analyst Summary

Today’s market tone is cautiously optimistic, with AI and crypto sectors leading the rebound. The Fed’s potential December rate cut and geopolitical de-escalation in Ukraine are tailwinds, but risks persist. Analysts emphasize a “buy the dip” strategy in AI-linked stocks and caution against overexposure to volatile names like NuScale. The key takeaway: while macro conditions are improving, execution risks and regulatory shifts could disrupt momentum.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

• Nov 24–28: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and U.S. designations of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles could shift risk premiums. A peace deal would likely boost oil prices and reduce geopolitical volatility.
• Dec 9–10: The Fed’s policy meeting will confirm or revise rate-cut expectations, with JPMorgan forecasting a 25-basis-point cut.
• Nov 30: U.S. debt issuance challenges and the S&P 500’s 3% November drop could test liquidity constraints. Investors should brace for heightened volatility in the final week of the month.