Morning Market Pulse: Trump Tariffs Face Senate Rejection as AI and Trade Deals Drive Pre-Market Moves

The pre-market session is shaping up as a mixed bag, with the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures up 0.56% at $6,893.75 and the Nasdaq 100 surging 1.08% to $26,162.50, driven by AI optimism. The Dow lagged slightly at +0.08%, reflecting broader economic caution. Commodity markets show divergent signals: WTI crude oil rose 0.61% to $60.94, gold climbed 0.61% to $4,040.5, while copper and silver dipped, hinting at industrial demand concerns. The tone is cautiously optimistic, with tech-led momentum clashing against geopolitical and fiscal headwinds. Here’s what to watch today.

1. Trump Tariffs Face Bipartisan Senate Rejection

The U.S. Senate’s 51-47 vote to nullify Trump’s global tariffs marks a rare bipartisan rebuke of the president’s trade policies. While symbolic, the move signals growing unease within the GOP about executive overreach and economic fallout. House Republicans have blocked similar efforts, but the Senate’s stance could pressure Trump to soften his approach. The resolution underscores risks to global trade stability, with tariffs on Brazil and Canada already disrupting supply chains. For markets, this could ease short-term volatility but not resolve deeper tensions.

2. Nvidia’s AI ‘Virtuous Cycle’ Fuels Nasdaq Optimism

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang declared AI has entered a self-reinforcing growth loop, with $300B+ in tech sector investments driving demand for GPUs. This narrative is a key tailwind for the Nasdaq, which is already up 1.08% in futures. Analysts like Wedbush’s Dan Ives call Nvidia the "foundation of the AI Revolution." The focus on profitability, not just hype, suggests sustained momentum for AI stocks. Investors should watch NVDA and AI infrastructure plays like AMD and MSFT for follow-through.

3. JPMorgan’s Crypto Pivot: BTC/ETH as Collateral

Jamie Dimon’s reversal on crypto—allowing institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral by 2025—signals a major shift in Wall Street’s stance. JPMorgan’s blockchain-based Deposit Token pilot adds credibility to digital assets. This move could boost institutional demand for BTC and ETH, potentially lifting prices in the short term. The bank’s controlled, private blockchain approach also addresses regulatory concerns. JPM shares may see upward pressure as the market digests this strategic pivot.

4. U.S.-China Trade Truce: A Temporary Pause

A one-year suspension of U.S. export restrictions on 20,000 Chinese firms and China’s delay on rare earth export limits reflect diplomatic pragmatism. While this eases immediate tensions, the truce is conditional and politically fragile. The agreement, brokered during Trump-Xi talks, could stabilize tech and semiconductor sectors in the near term. However, long-term risks remain, especially with Trump’s hardline stance on China. Investors should monitor ASML and TSM for exposure to U.S.-China tech dynamics.

5. Apple’s Earnings Beat and Holiday Outlook

Apple’s Q4 results ($102.5B revenue, $1.85 EPS) and record services growth ($19.5B) highlight its resilience. The company’s guidance for a 10-12% holiday quarter revenue increase, driven by iPhone 17 demand, is a bullish catalyst. With AAPL shares up post-earnings, the focus now shifts to execution in key markets like India and Europe. The stock’s ability to blend hardware innovation with recurring revenue makes it a key barometer for consumer tech sentiment.

6. Poolside’s $2B AI Funding: Nvidia’s Strategic Bet

Nvidia’s $1B investment in AI startup Poolside, valuing it at $12B, underscores the tech giant’s push to dominate the AI ecosystem. Poolside’s coding assistants and enterprise software tools could disrupt developer markets. This move also signals confidence in AI’s long-term potential, with NVDA positioned to benefit from both hardware and software innovation. The funding round’s success may spur similar investments in the AI space.

7. Cigna’s Drug Rebate Shift: Margin Pressure Ahead

Cigna’s pivot from rebates to upfront drug discounts aims to lower patient costs but risks margin compression in its pharmacy segment. The segment accounts for 30% of operating earnings, and expected declines in 2026 could weigh on CI shares. However, the company’s strong Q3 results ($7.83 EPS) and focus on transparency may offset some concerns. This trend reflects broader industry efforts to reform drug pricing, with implications for insurers like UNH and CVS.

8. U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit 4-Month High

Natural gas futures surged to $4/MMBTU, driven by record LNG exports and seasonal demand. The U.S. is becoming a key LNG supplier, with infrastructure projects and global energy transitions supporting growth. This trend benefits energy producers like CVX and EOG, but rising prices could also reignite inflation concerns. Investors should watch for follow-through in energy stocks and potential Fed policy implications.

9. Trump-Xi Soybean Deal: Agriculture Sector Relief

The U.S.-China agreement to lower tariffs in exchange for increased soybean purchases is a win for American farmers. This deal addresses a key pain point in the trade war and could stabilize agricultural markets. However, broader geopolitical tensions remain. The soybean sector, represented by DE and CEVA, may see short-term gains, but long-term success depends on sustained trade cooperation.

10. Government Shutdown Threatens Thanksgiving Travel

The ongoing shutdown risks a $1B/week hit to the travel sector, with air traffic controllers working unpaid and staffing shortages looming. A Thanksgiving travel disaster could spook markets and amplify fiscal policy debates. Airlines like AAL and UAL face operational risks, while the broader economy could suffer from disrupted consumer spending.

Ticker Watchlist

• AAPL: Strong Q4 results and holiday guidance; watch for sustained momentum.
• NVDA: AI infrastructure demand and Poolside investment; key earnings catalyst.
• JPM: Crypto collateral rollout and Dimon’s strategic shift; potential re-rating.
• CI: Margin pressure in pharmacy segment; monitor rebate policy impact.
• CVX/EOG: Natural gas price surge; assess export and production trends.
• DE/CEVA: Soybean deal execution; gauge trade policy risks.
• AAL/UAL: Government shutdown risks; track staffing and operational updates.

Analyst Summary

Today’s market tone balances tech optimism with macro caution. The Senate’s rejection of Trump’s tariffs and JPMorgan’s crypto pivot signal a shift toward pragmatic policy and institutional adoption. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s AI narrative and Apple’s earnings strength reinforce tech leadership. However, geopolitical risks—ranging from U.S.-China tensions to the government shutdown—remain critical overhangs. Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AI-driven growth but urge vigilance on fiscal and trade policy shifts.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week’s key events include PayPal’s partnership with OpenAI (Oct 28), Russia’s Poseidon torpedo test (Oct 29), Trump’s nuclear testing announcement (Oct 30), and the U.S.-China tariff truce extension (Oct 30). Investors should also monitor Russia-Ukraine energy conflicts and the U.S. government shutdown’s impact on travel. These events could drive volatility in energy, defense, and tech sectors, with potential spillovers into global markets.