Morning Market Pulse: Trump-Saudi $270B Deals & Nvidia’s AI Surge Drive Pre-Market Optimism

The pre-market session is off to a strong start as major index futures rally on AI-driven optimism and geopolitical developments. E-Mini S&P 500 futures jump 1.22% to $6,743.00, Nasdaq 100 futures surge 1.68% to $25,138.25, and Dow futures rise 0.60% to $46,487.00. The Nasdaq’s outperformance highlights AI sector strength, while the S&P’s broad gains suggest risk-on sentiment. Commodity markets show mixed signals: WTI crude oil climbs 1.08% to $59.89 as OPEC+ supply concerns linger, but gold dips 0.21% to $4,074.40 amid reduced safe-haven demand. Copper and silver edge higher, reflecting industrial demand resilience. The combination of AI momentum and Trump’s geopolitical playbook sets the tone for a cautiously bullish open. Here’s what to watch today.

1. Nvidia’s Q3 Earnings: AI Dominance Unshaken

Nvidia (NVDA) reported a record $57.01B revenue, up 62% YoY, driven by Blackwell AI chip demand. Data center revenue hit $51.22B, with cloud GPUs sold out. The company’s $65B Q4 guidance exceeds expectations, reinforcing its AI infrastructure leadership. While gross margins dipped slightly to 73.6%, the focus remains on long-term growth. Investors are pricing in sustained dominance, but competition from AMD and Intel, plus regulatory risks in China, could test this optimism. NVDA shares rose 3% after hours.

2. Trump’s Saudi $270B Deals: AI and Energy Alliances

President Trump announced $270B in U.S.-Saudi deals, including AI chip exports to Humain and energy partnerships. The move signals a strategic pivot to position Saudi Arabia as an AI hub, with xAI and Nvidia building a 500MW data center in the Gulf. This aligns with Trump’s push for federal AI regulation to override state laws. The deals also highlight U.S. support for Saudi economic diversification, though details remain vague. For now, the focus is on Trump’s ability to unlock growth in AI and energy sectors.

3. Nvidia’s CFO Defends GPU Lifespan Amid Skepticism

Nvidia’s Colette Kress pushed back against depreciation concerns raised by investors like Michael Burry, arguing CUDA software extends GPU lifecycles. The debate centers on whether six-year depreciation understates costs, but Kress emphasized total cost of ownership advantages. This is critical for AI valuation models, as older chips like the A100 remain profitable. The company’s roadmap, including Blackwell and OpenAI investments, hinges on proving long-term ROI.

4. C3.ai’s Struggles: Leadership Chaos and Revenue Slump

C3.ai (AI) reported a 19% YoY revenue drop to $70.3M, with founder Thomas Siebel stepping down as CEO due to health issues. New CEO Stephen Ehikian cited sales disruption from leadership changes as the main culprit. The company withdrew full-year guidance and is now exploring a potential buyout. With a 45% stock decline and $2.1B market cap, C3.ai faces an uphill battle against rivals like Palantir and Salesforce. Institutional investors are likely to monitor its restructuring closely.

5. Trump’s AI Regulation Play: Federal Over State Control

The administration is drafting an executive order to block state-level AI regulations, centralizing oversight under federal authority. Attorney General Pam Bondi will lead a task force targeting state laws, arguing they violate federal commerce rules. This aligns with Trump’s broader AI growth strategy, including partnerships with Musk and Saudi Arabia. While the move could streamline policy, it risks stifling state-level innovation. Investors should watch for finalization of the order and its impact on tech stocks.

6. BlackRock’s $816M Crypto Move: Institutional Confidence

BlackRock transferred $616M in BTC and $200M in ETH to Coinbase, signaling increased institutional crypto activity. The move could boost market sentiment ahead of potential ETF approvals. While regulatory uncertainty persists, large fund managers like BlackRock are betting on crypto’s long-term legitimacy. This transaction underscores the asset class’s growing acceptance, though volatility remains a wildcard.

7. Ukraine-Russia War: Trump’s Peace Plan Adds Complexity

Trump quietly endorsed a Russia-Ukraine peace plan involving territorial concessions by Ukraine, per NBC. The proposal, which includes reduced military forces, has sparked controversy among U.S. allies. While Trump’s de-escalation approach aligns with his foreign policy style, the plan’s feasibility is unclear. Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk, with recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure underscoring the conflict’s volatility.

Ticker Watchlist

• NVDA: AI momentum and Blackwell demand drive optimism, but watch for margin pressures and OpenAI deal clarity.
• AI (C3.ai): Leadership transition and revenue slump pose near-term risks; potential buyout rumors could spark volatility.
• BTC/ETH: BlackRock’s crypto move may boost sentiment, but regulatory and macro risks linger.
• SQ (Block): Share buybacks and AI expansion aim to restore confidence, but execution risks remain.
• GE (GE Aerospace): Involvement in U.S.-Saudi deals could drive short-term gains.

Analyst Summary

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about AI-driven growth, with Nvidia’s dominance and Trump’s Saudi deals as key catalysts. However, concerns about valuation sustainability, regulatory headwinds, and geopolitical risks temper enthusiasm. The focus is on whether AI infrastructure spending can translate into long-term profitability, particularly as rivals like AMD and Intel close the gap. For now, the market is pricing in a bullish AI narrative, but investors should monitor earnings quality and regulatory developments.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week’s key events include escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, with attacks on infrastructure and proposed peace plans creating uncertainty. The U.S. and EU’s stance on asset seizures and trade disputes will also shape risk sentiment. Investors should watch for updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump’s AI policy moves, and any shifts in China export restrictions. The week’s data releases will likely remain overshadowed by geopolitical and AI-driven narratives.