Morning Market Pulse: Trump’s Energy Shifts and AI Surge Drive Pre-Market Moves

The pre-market session is shaping up as a mixed bag, with the E-Mini S&P 500 (-1.04%) and Nasdaq 100 (-1.52%) futures leading the decline, while the Dow (-0.67%) holds slightly firmer. The sharp drop in tech-heavy Nasdaq futures reflects ongoing caution around AI-driven valuations and macroeconomic uncertainty. Commodity markets are split: WTI crude oil (+1.6%) gains on Trump’s energy policy reversal, while gold (-2.52%) and silver (-3.84%) retreat as investors rotate out of safe havens. The broader tone is one of risk-off caution, with Bitcoin’s 6% drop below $97K amplifying volatility. Here’s what to watch today.

Top Market Stories

1. Trump’s Alaska Drilling Reversal Sparks Energy Sector Optimism

The Trump administration’s reversal of Biden-era drilling restrictions in Alaska has opened 10.6 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve to oil and gas development. This move, backed by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, aims to boost domestic energy production and reduce reliance on foreign oil. While environmental groups criticize the decision, energy firms like ConocoPhillips (COP) and ExxonMobil (XOM) could benefit from increased exploration activity. The policy shift aligns with broader Republican goals of expanding fossil fuel access, potentially supporting WTI crude’s recent gains.

1. Nvidia’s AI Chip Demand Fuels $265 Price Target Hike

Oppenheimer raised its price target for Nvidia (NVDA) to $265, citing surging demand for its GB300 Ultra chips and robust cloud spending. The firm forecasts $500 billion in cumulative Blackwell/Rubin revenue by 2026, driven by AI-driven growth in cloud, sovereign, and enterprise sectors. With hyperscalers like Microsoft building AI “super factories” and Cursor securing $2.3 billion in funding, the AI boom is accelerating. Investors are now pricing in strong Q3 2025 earnings, with the stock set to report on November 19.

1. Bitcoin’s 6% Drop Triggers ETF Outflows and Liquidations

Bitcoin fell below $97,000, marking a 6% single-day decline and a 13.4% monthly loss. ETF outflows of $278 million and $553 million in liquidations highlight the market’s bearish turn. Long-term holders sold 815,000 BTC, while miners dumped 1,200 BTC in the past week. The sell-off is linked to macroeconomic pressures, including Fed uncertainty and a global risk-off environment. Key support levels at $97,045 and $92,000 are now in focus, with technical indicators showing oversold conditions.

1. Alibaba’s AI and Tokenized Payments Push Global Trade

Alibaba’s B2B platform, Alibaba.com, is rolling out AI-powered tools and tokenized payments to streamline global trade. The AI Mode feature enables advanced supplier comparisons, while “agentic pay” automates contract creation using AI. The platform plans to partner with JPMorgan (JPM) for tokenized U.S. dollar and euro settlements, aiming to cut cross-border transaction costs. This move aligns with China’s broader digital trade strategy under Xi Jinping and could signal regulatory openness toward stablecoin-like technologies.

1. Merck’s $9.2B Cidara Acquisition Targets Influenza Market

Merck (MRK) agreed to acquire Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) for $9.2 billion in a cash deal, offering $221.50 per share. Cidara’s lead candidate, CD388, is in Phase 3 trials for influenza treatment and has shown strong potential. The acquisition, expected to close in Q1 2026, is a strategic move to expand Merck’s portfolio in infectious disease. Cidara’s shares surged 103% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor confidence in the drug’s prospects.

Ticker Watchlist

• NVDA: AI demand and Q3 2025 earnings (Nov 19) could drive further gains.
• MRK: Merck’s $9.2B Cidara acquisition may unlock value in influenza treatments.
• COP/XOM: Trump’s Alaska drilling policy could boost energy sector activity.
• JPM: Alibaba’s tokenized payment partnership may expand cross-border trade.
• CDTX: Merck’s $221.50 offer prices in Cidara’s Phase 3 influenza candidate.
• OTLK: FDA’s December 31 decision on Outlook’s wet AMD treatment could trigger volatility.

Analyst Summary

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Trump’s energy policy reversal and AI-driven growth in tech, but remain wary of Bitcoin’s bearish momentum and geopolitical risks. J.P. Morgan’s $3,675 gold forecast by Q4 2025 highlights inflationary pressures, while the UK’s abandoned income tax hike adds fiscal uncertainty. The market is balancing short-term catalysts—like Nvidia’s AI momentum and Merck’s acquisition—with macro risks, including Fed policy delays and global trade tensions. Investors are advised to monitor key support levels in Bitcoin and watch for rate-cut signals from the Fed.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week’s key events include Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with Trump on Nov 10 for sanctions relief, U.S. military movements in the Caribbean, and the IAEA’s report on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Nov 12. Investors should also watch for updates on Venezuela’s military mobilization and Russia’s troop advances in Ukraine. These developments could amplify geopolitical risks and impact energy markets. With the Fed’s December meeting approaching, rate-cut expectations and core PCE inflation data will remain critical focal points.