Morning Market Pulse: Trump Delays Iran Strike, Tech Giants Lead Rally

The pre-market session shows a cautiously optimistic tone as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edge higher, while the Dow remains flat. The E-Mini S&P 500 (+0.18%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.50%) futures suggest a modest open for tech-driven benchmarks, whereas the Mini Dow (+0.02%) reflects limited momentum in industrial sectors. Commodity markets diverge: WTI crude oil jumps 1.37% to $59.89, signaling renewed energy demand optimism, while gold (-0.35%), silver (-2.07%), and copper (-1.69%) retreat, hinting at reduced safe-haven demand and weak industrial sentiment. The mixed signals underscore a market balancing geopolitical caution with tech-sector optimism. Here’s what to watch today.

1. Trump Delays Iran Strike Amid Netanyahu Warnings

President Trump’s decision to postpone a major military strike on Iran—following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s warnings of regional escalation—has eased short-term geopolitical tensions. While the U.S. military continues to mobilize assets, the delay suggests a strategic pause to assess Iran’s response to domestic protests. This shift could limit near-term volatility in energy markets, but the risk of renewed conflict remains. Investors should monitor oil prices and regional military movements for clues about the administration’s next steps.

2. Federal Reserve Cautious as Banks Report Rising Costs

Major U.S. banks are signaling a cautious 2025 outlook, with high interest rates and inflationary pressures dampening consumer spending. While the Fed has hinted at potential rate cuts, the banking sector’s wariness highlights the fragility of economic momentum. This duality—fighting inflation while avoiding a slowdown—could lead to a fragmented policy response. The Fed’s upcoming statements will be critical for gauging the balance between rate cuts and tightening.

3. Nvidia and AI Giants Lead Explosive Growth in 2026

Nvidia (NVDA) and its AI-driven peers are dominating headlines as demand for advanced computing surges. The company’s role in powering AI infrastructure positions it as a linchpin for the tech sector’s next phase of growth. MercadoLibre and The Trade Desk are also gaining traction in e-commerce and digital advertising. With AI adoption accelerating, these firms could see outsized gains, but investors should watch for valuation corrections if macroeconomic risks resurface.

4. U.S.-China Tensions Escalate Over Trade and Tech

Ongoing trade disputes and technology restrictions between the U.S. and China are intensifying, with both nations prioritizing strategic technological dominance. The U.S. is tightening export controls on advanced chips, while China accelerates domestic innovation. These developments could disrupt global supply chains and create headwinds for multinational corporations. Investors should track currency swap agreements and tariff adjustments for signs of de-escalation.

5. TSMC Stock Rises on Goldman Sachs’ Price Target Hike

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) shares surged after Goldman Sachs raised its price target to TWD 2,600, reflecting confidence in the company’s leadership in advanced chip manufacturing. With AI and data center demand driving growth, TSMC is well-positioned to benefit from the tech boom. However, supply chain risks and geopolitical tensions in the semiconductor sector could pose short-term challenges.

Ticker/Company Watchlist

• NVDA (Nvidia): Monitor AI chip demand and earnings guidance for momentum in the Magnificent Seven.
• TSMC (TSMC): Watch for follow-through on Goldman Sachs’ price target and global chip demand trends.
• MercadoLibre (MELI): Track e-commerce growth in Latin America and cross-border trade dynamics.
• The Trade Desk (TTD): Assess digital advertising spending trends and AI-driven ad tech adoption.

Analyst Summary

Today’s market sentiment leans cautiously optimistic, driven by tech-sector optimism and a temporary pause in Iran-related tensions. However, underlying risks—such as Fed policy uncertainty, commodity volatility, and U.S.-China friction—remain. Analysts are split: some see a path for tech-led growth to outperform macro headwinds, while others warn of a potential pullback if inflation or geopolitical risks resurface. The key will be how the Fed navigates its dual mandate and whether AI-driven earnings can sustain momentum.

Upcoming Economic Highlights

This week’s economic calendar includes critical data on consumer spending, manufacturing PMIs, and the Fed’s policy outlook. Investors should also watch for updates on U.S.-China trade negotiations and any shifts in energy prices. These events could shape the trajectory of the market’s cautious optimism and influence the Fed’s next moves.