J.P. Morgan Upgrades Upstart Holdings to Buy with $88 Price Target

J.P. Morgan analyst Reginald Smith upgraded Upstart Holdings to Buy with a $88 price target, citing the company's strong performance. The analyst consensus is currently a Hold with an average price target of $68.10, representing a 10.58% upside. The company has a one-year high of $96.43 and a one-year low of $31.40, with an average volume of 6.24M shares.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST), a leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, announced its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024. The company reported robust growth across all product categories, with total revenue reaching $219 million in the fourth quarter, a 56% year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 35% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [1].

Key highlights of the fourth quarter include:
- Total fee revenue of $199 million, up 30% YoY and 19% QoQ.
- Transaction volume of 245,663 loans, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and 33% QoQ.
- Conversion rate of 19.3%, up from 11.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $38.8 million, up from $0.6 million in the same quarter of the prior year.
- Contribution profit of $122 million, up 28% YoY, with a contribution margin of 61%.

For the full year 2024, Upstart reported:
- Total revenue of $637 million, up 24% YoY.
- Total fee revenue of $635 million, up 13% YoY.
- Transaction volume of 697,092 loans, totaling $5.9 billion, up 28% YoY.
- Conversion rate of 16.5%, up from 9.7% in 2023.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 million, up from ($17.2) million in 2023.
- Contribution profit of $382 million, up 8% YoY, with a contribution margin of 60%.

J.P. Morgan analyst Reginald Smith recently upgraded Upstart Holdings to Buy with a $88 price target, citing the company's strong performance and growth prospects. The analyst consensus remains a Hold with an average price target of $68.10, representing a 10.58% upside. The company's stock has seen significant volatility, reaching a one-year high of $96.43 and a one-year low of $31.40, with an average volume of 6.24 million shares [2].

Upstart's strong financial performance and positive analyst upgrade indicate growing confidence in the company's AI-driven lending model. The company's ability to originate loans efficiently and at scale, coupled with its robust growth prospects, positions it favorably in the fintech industry.

References:
[1] https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250211401108/en/Upstart-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results
[2] https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/upst