Morgan TSLA preview: pessimistic housing expectations

Recent communication with buyers revealed a more pessimistic outlook. The impact of anti-subsidy on EVs has led to a downward revision of the growth rate in 2025, and the core focus is on the delivery volume guidance.

Q4 auto gross margin expectation: Buyers expect the Q4 auto gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) to be 15%, while the market consensus is 15.7%. Potential deferred revenue (FSD revenue) and other factors may cause certain "disturbance" to this result. Inventory reduction is expected to support free cash flow (FCF).

Core focus guidance: Including whether to reiterate the target of 20% to 30% growth in delivery volumes in fiscal 2024, the production progress of the Model Y "Juniper" project, the update of FSD classes, the expansion of AI infrastructure, the deployment plan of electric taxis (Cybercab), the milestones of Optimus, etc. Trump 2.0's attitude towards EV subsidies affects sales expectations: Trump 2.0's opposition to EV subsidies has affected the sales expectations in 2025.

Changes in investor expectations: Investors' expectations for Tesla's sales growth in 2025 are closer to 10% than 20%. This is due to the pressure on the EV market, increased competition from Chinese carmakers, slower growth of Cybertruck, and the possible cancellation or repeal of EV tax subsidies. Other views:

Development logic and changes in investor composition: With Tesla's continuous progress in vehicle, robot, etc. reasoning clusters, as well as AI/processing power infrastructure (including xAI), we believe the market's overall development logic and investor composition will undergo significant changes. Industry and supply chain impact: From the automotive industry perspective, we believe the strong tariff measures promised by the Trump administration are actually intended to promote the domestic production of A1-related technologies and form a safer supply chain. Tesla will play a significant role in filling the gap in the next-generation manufacturing and supply chain, which will also have an increasingly significant driving force for its growth and shareholder value.