Morgan Stanley Maintains Buy Rating on ZTO Express with $23.80 Price Target

Morgan Stanley analyst Qianlei Fan maintains a Buy rating on ZTO Express with a price target of $23.80. Fan is ranked #8849 out of 9923 analysts on TipRanks. The overall analyst consensus rating for ZTO Express is Strong Buy with an average price target of $23.09. ZTO Express' market cap is $15.71B and P/E ratio is 13.44.

ZTO Express (NYSE: ZTO), a leading player in China's Air Freight & Logistics industry, has seen mixed reactions from analysts following its second-quarter financial results. Morgan Stanley has lowered its price target to $23.80, while BofA Securities has raised its target to $22.00, reflecting differing views on the company's performance and future prospects.

Morgan Stanley analyst Qianlei Fan maintains a Buy rating on ZTO Express with a price target of $23.80, ranking #8849 out of 9923 analysts on TipRanks. The overall analyst consensus rating for ZTO Express is Strong Buy with an average price target of $23.09 [1]. The company's market cap stands at $15.71B and its P/E ratio is 13.44 [2].

The recent financial report showed a decline in earnings compared to expectations. ZTO Express posted an adjusted net profit of RMB2.03 billion, marking a 28% year-over-year decrease. This result was 10% below BofA Securities’ estimate and 13% below consensus expectations. Despite the quarterly decline, the company maintains solid fundamentals with $1.29 billion in net income over the last twelve months and 14.76% revenue growth [2].

Morgan Stanley cited slower parcel volume growth expected in the second half of 2025 and higher average selling prices due to "anti-involution" measures in the Chinese delivery market as reasons for the lowered price target. The firm trimmed earnings forecasts by 1%, 2%, and 2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1].

In contrast, BofA Securities raised its price target to $22.00, citing strong fundamentals and higher ASP assumptions for the company’s services. The analyst noted that management believes express delivery will be priced on a cost-plus basis, reflecting industry initiatives to establish more sustainable pricing models [2].

Despite the mixed analyst opinions, ZTO Express experienced strong parcel volume growth, which offset some margin pressure. The company's ongoing efforts to navigate a competitive environment while managing margin pressures will be closely watched by investors.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/morgan-stanley-lowers-zto-express-stock-price-target-to-2380-on-slower-growth-93CH-4206698
[2] https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/zto-express-stock-price-target-raised-to-22-from-19-at-bofa-securities-93CH-4201880