J.P. Morgan Predicts Stablecoins to Reach $500 Billion by 2028

J.P. Morgan predicts the stablecoin market will reach $500 billion by 2028, a more modest forecast than some experts who predict a market cap of $1 to $4 trillion. The bank believes stablecoins will continue to grow in popularity, driven by increasing demand for digital assets and expanding use cases. However, J.P. Morgan emphasizes the need for stablecoins to address regulatory and operational issues before achieving widespread adoption.

J.P. Morgan has revised its forecast for the stablecoin market, projecting it will grow to $500 billion by 2028, down from an earlier estimate of $1 trillion. The bank attributes this adjustment to the lack of mainstream adoption of dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies [1].

Stablecoins, initially used primarily for cryptocurrency transactions, are now attracting interest from fintech companies and banks seeking to expedite payment and settlement processes. This shift has caught the attention of U.S. lawmakers. Recently, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which analysts believe could bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the sector [1].

Before the GENIUS Act's passage, Standard Chartered predicted the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028. Bernstein projected that stablecoin supply could grow to approximately $4 trillion over the next decade. Despite these optimistic projections, J.P. Morgan notes that stablecoin usage in payments remains limited, accounting for only about 6% of overall demand, or roughly $15 billion [1].

Currently, the stablecoin market is estimated at $250 billion, with primary uses in cryptocurrency trading, decentralized finance (DeFi), and collateral. J.P. Morgan anticipates the market could double in size over the coming years, but this remains below its previous $1 trillion forecast [1].

Arbitrum is quickly becoming one of the favored blockchains for stablecoins, which are rapidly expanding. On Monday, July 7, the total stablecoin market cap of the chain reached an all-time high, surpassing $6.8 billion in value. The figure includes both natively minted stablecoins and bridged stablecoins [2].

Stablecoin supply by blockchain | Source: Artemis Capital
This figure puts Arbitrum in fifth place among blockchains. Ethereum (ETH) still dominates, with $127 billion, while Tron (TRX) is in second place at $81 billion. BNB Chain (BNB) and Solana (SOL) follow in third and fourth place, at around $10 billion [2].

In the past few weeks, Arbitrum has seen significant stablecoin inflows. For the week ending on June 2, Arbitrum recorded $381 million in stablecoin inflows, more than any other chain. At the same time, Ethereum saw $374 million in outflows [2].

Arbitrum has over 1 million stablecoin wallets
Out of the total $249.8 billion in stablecoin supply, Arbitrum now controls 2.6%. What’s more, as of June 25, Arbitrum had 1.3 million active addresses that hold stablecoins. In this metric, BNB leads with 11.8 million, followed by Tron with 9.6 million [2].

Stablecoin active addresses by blockchain | Source: Artemis Capital
It is important to note that the stablecoin supply can be calculated in different ways. For example, Artemis measures this figure by combining all stablecoin balances on the chain, including those deployed in DeFi liquidity pools, derivatives, etc. DeFiLlama tracks just stablecoin wallet balances, which stand at $3.465 billion. Notably, 61.14% of these balances are in USDC [2].

Despite significant stablecoin adoption, Arbitrum’s price has been trending downward. Over the last 30 days, ARB has fallen from a high of $0.4255 to its current value of $0.3284. This is despite the latest partnership with the trading app Robinhood, in what is likely a “buy the rumor, sell the news” trend [2].

As digital assets become more mainstream, businesses are exploring practical, low-risk ways to enter the crypto economy. Stablecoin payouts and loyalty rewards have emerged as some of the most accessible options, offering immediate operational benefits and deeper engagement with digital-native consumers [3].

Meeting Digital-Native Expectations
Millennials and Gen Z are leading the adoption of crypto wallets and decentralized platforms. For these consumers, receiving rewards, rebates, or even payroll in crypto feels natural — not to mention more valuable than traditional alternatives [3].

Crypto-based loyalty programs let businesses issue rewards in assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins such as USDC and USDT (Tether). These rewards offer real ownership: they can be saved, traded or used outside a single platform. Some businesses are even creating brand tokens that unlock tiered perks, exclusive content, or early access to products, further deepening loyalty and increasing repeat engagement [3].

Fast, Cost-Effective Global Payouts
Beyond consumer rewards, crypto is gaining traction for its ability to simplify global payments. Traditional banking systems often involve delays, high fees, and currency exchange hurdles. Cryptocurrency, especially stablecoins like USDC and USDT, solves this by offering near-instant, low-cost, cross-border transactions [3].

Businesses are using stablecoins for:
delivering crypto-based rebates and cash-back rewards;
paying international contractors and gig workers;
disbursing affiliate and influencer commissions;
sending B2B payments to overseas vendors; and
issuing payroll and performance bonuses [3].

What makes these payments even more attractive is the availability of low-fee, high-speed blockchain networks like Solana and Polygon. Both platforms support USDC and USDT and enable transactions that cost just a fraction of a cent, making them ideal for high-volume or micro-payout scenarios [3].

For example, a retailer working with hundreds of affiliates globally can use USDC on Solana to send instant, transparent payouts with negligible fees, eliminating the friction of legacy systems [3].

Loyalty That Feels Like Real Utility
Crypto rewards aren’t just more flexible than traditional points, they’re useful. Recipients can spend their USDC or USDT payouts on everyday needs like:
shopping at online retailers;
buying gift cards;
paying phone or utility bills;
donating to charities or tipping creators; and
cross-border remittance payments [3].

This utility adds real-world value to loyalty rewards and rebate programs, turning them from passive incentives into active spending tools. Customers are more likely to engage with rewards they can actually use — and remember the brand that gave them something meaningful [3].

UX, Compliance and the Value of Trusted Partners
Despite the benefits, execution matters. User experience (UX) is critical. Crypto onboarding should be simple, with intuitive wallet options, minimal technical jargon, and support for both custodial and noncustodial solutions [3].

Compliance is equally important. Crypto payouts are subject to regulations around taxation, KYC (Know Your Customer), AML (Anti-Money Laundering) and, in some cases, securities laws. Whether issuing tokens or paying international freelancers, retailers must operate within legal frameworks [3].

That’s why it’s essential to partner with a trusted crypto payments provider. One that understands both the technical and regulatory complexities of global crypto payouts. The right partner can handle compliance, streamline onboarding, and enable retailers to scale confidently [3].

A Smart First Step
From loyalty rewards to global payroll and B2B vendor payments, crypto gives businesses a scalable, efficient way to modernize operations and connect with digital-native audiences. Stablecoins like USDC and USDT, especially when transacted on low-cost networks like Solana and Polygon, make these use cases fast, flexible and cost effective [3].

Crypto payouts and rewards aren’t just an entry point into Web3; they’re a practical tool for modern commerce. For retailers looking to innovate without overhauling their business, this is the smart place to start [3].

Bill Zielke is the chief revenue officer and chief marketing officer at BitPay, the world’s largest provider of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency payment services [3].

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2960144/jpmorgan-revises-stablecoin-market-growth-prediction-to-500-billion-by-2028
[2] https://crypto.news/stablecoin-adoption-on-arbitrum-mainnet-is-at-an-all-time-high/
[3] https://network.napco.com/total-retail/article/stablecoin-rewards-and-payouts-a-low-lift-onramp-for-businesses-entering-the-digital-asset-economy/