J.P. Morgan boosts 2025 year-end target for MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1250 from 1150.

J.P. Morgan boosts 2025 year-end target for MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1250 from 1150.

J.P. Morgan has revised its 2025 year-end target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, increasing it to 1250 from a previous estimate of 1150. The update reflects the bank's more optimistic outlook on emerging markets, particularly in Asia.

The revised target comes amidst a backdrop of global economic uncertainties, including the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on global growth and inflation. J.P. Morgan analysts have indicated that higher tariffs in the United States could lead to a stagflationary slowdown in 2025, with a 40% probability of a recession in the second half of this year [1]. Despite these challenges, the bank remains bullish on emerging markets, attributing the optimism to the resilience of consumer and economic fundamentals.

South Korea, a key component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, has seen its stock market perform strongly this year, with the Kospi index rising nearly 30% to its highest level in nearly four years. Despite efforts to transition to a developed market status, South Korea remains in the emerging markets category due to limited foreign exchange reforms and restricted accessibility to investment tools [2].

The updated target from J.P. Morgan underscores the potential for emerging markets to deliver strong returns, particularly in the face of global economic headwinds. Investors should monitor developments closely, as the outlook for emerging markets remains subject to significant policy and geopolitical risks.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/jpmorgan-sees-tariffinduced-us-stagflationary-slowdown-in-2025-4110847
[2] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2944250/msci-keeps-south-korea-in-emerging-markets-category-amid-limited-forex-reforms