Moonriver/Tether Market Overview for October 13, 2025

• Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) traded in a tight range on elevated volume, with a bearish close near support.
• A sharp intraday pullback below $4.42 highlights bearish momentum, as RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded briefly in the early morning hours, but price failed to break above $4.48, hinting at near-term resistance.
• Notional turnover spiked near key resistance levels, suggesting increased trading interest at critical price points.
• A potential bullish reversal setup is forming near $4.37, though confirmation remains pending over the next 24 hours.

Opening Price Action

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $4.376 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $4.529 before closing at $4.466 by 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour range was between $4.195 and $4.529. Total volume amounted to 170,875.295 MOVR, while notional turnover totaled approximately $744,203.79 USD. Price appears to have struggled to sustain momentum above key psychological levels despite heightened volume.

Structure & Formations

A distinct bearish structure has emerged over the past 24 hours, with several bearish engulfing patterns forming at key resistance levels between $4.42 and $4.48. A notable doji appeared at $4.48 on October 13 at 07:00 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal. The price action suggests that $4.42 may act as a near-term support level, with a failed attempt to breach $4.48 indicating a lack of buyer conviction.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have remained in a tight convergence, suggesting a flat price environment with limited directional bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend remains bearish. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory around the 30–32 level, hinting that a short-term bounce could be on the horizon. However, the MACD remains below the zero line with negative divergence, indicating that bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility remained subdued for much of the 24-hour period, with price staying within the Bollinger Band range of $4.40 to $4.48 for most of the session. However, a brief expansion occurred during the overnight Asian session, as price moved above the upper band at $4.529 before retracing sharply lower. Price currently sits near the lower band at $4.466, suggesting that volatility could contract again in the near term unless a breakout or breakdown occurs.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume distribution suggests increased selling pressure during key resistance tests, particularly between $4.42 and $4.48. The largest volume spike occurred at $4.48, where the price briefly hit $4.482 and then reversed lower. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the intensity of the resistance test. However, a divergence appears to be forming between volume and price, as volume has been declining despite continued bearish price action, which could signal a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $4.195 to $4.529 shows that the current price of $4.466 is near the 61.8% retracement level. This could serve as a key support or resistance level in the coming 24 hours. Additionally, the daily chart shows that the broader $4.30–$4.53 range has seen multiple retracements at 38.2% and 61.8%, reinforcing the importance of these levels in the near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish structure and the presence of potential reversal signals at key Fibonacci and support levels, a backtest of the “Bullish Engulfing” pattern could provide valuable insight into how MOVRUSDT has historically responded to such setups. The backtest would benefit from programmatically detecting these patterns on a daily OHLC basis, as this would provide a consistent and objective way to assess their efficacy. Once the pattern is identified and confirmed, it can be used to trigger a long entry with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low.