Moonriver/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• MOVR/USDT traded lower, closing at 3.760 after hitting a high of 4.176 and a low of 3.563.
• Volatility spiked sharply overnight, with volume peaking at over 93,000 and turnover reaching $373,000.
• A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed at 4.064, followed by a sharp reversal toward support at 3.604–3.648.
• RSI entered oversold territory after the drop, hinting at potential near-term rebound.
• Price remains within a tight consolidation range, with key resistance near 3.903 and support at 3.685.

Market Overview for MOVR/USDT (2025-11-12)

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at 3.834 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.777 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 4.176 and a low of 3.563 within the 24-hour window. Total trading volume amounted to 786,421.28 MOVR, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,881,747, indicating strong liquidity and participation.

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a complex bearish reversal, with a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern occurring at 4.064. This was followed by a sharp drop, which brought MOVR/USDT into a consolidation phase between 3.604 and 3.903. On the daily scale, 20- and 50-period moving averages intersected near 3.78–3.79, suggesting a short-term equilibrium but with no clear directional bias. The 200-day MA remains below 3.84, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) after the 3.563 low, suggesting a potential rebound in the near term. MACD turned negative during the sell-off and remains bearish, though divergence with price appears to be forming, as price has stabilized around 3.775 while momentum slows. Bollinger Bands widened overnight during the sharp decline, with the 2σ band reaching as high as 4.176 and as low as 3.563. Price has since settled near the 1σ band at 3.81–3.83, suggesting that volatility may be compressing again.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 3.563–4.176 swing indicate potential short-term support at 3.702 (38.2%) and 3.648 (23.6%). A breakout below the 3.604 level would confirm a 61.8% retracement, signaling a more aggressive bearish phase. Resistance levels are concentrated near 3.825 and 3.903. Volume increased sharply during the overnight decline, with several 15-minute candles showing over 20,000 MOVR traded, but has since normalized. Notional turnover also saw a spike, though price and turnover have since aligned more closely.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest utilized bearish engulfing patterns as short-entry signals, with symmetric 10% take-profit and stop-loss levels applied to manage risk. Given the confirmed bearish engulfing at 4.064 and the subsequent pullback, a short entry would have been triggered at that level. The sharp drop to 3.563 would have activated the stop-loss or resulted in a significant P/L, depending on the entry point and timing. A cumulative P/L curve and hit ratio can be analyzed in the interactive report, which also includes drawdowns, trade logs, and risk metrics.