Moonriver/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-06

• Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) fell from $5.75 to $5.545 amid strong bearish momentum and high volatility.
• A key support at $5.55–$5.565 appears to have been tested multiple times during the session.
• High volume spikes in the early session and late evening suggest strong accumulation and distribution activity.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold conditions at the bottom, but price failed to break above the 20 EMA on the 15-min chart.
• The Bollinger Band squeeze in the pre-breakout period suggested a high probability of directional move.

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $5.665 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $5.75, and fell to a low of $5.545 before closing at $5.72 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour volume was approximately 48,577,246 MOVR, with a notional turnover of around $271,886. Price saw a strong bearish trend early in the session, but a late-day rally pushed it back into positive territory.

Structure & Formations

MOVRUSDT displayed a textbook bearish engulfing pattern during the early part of the session, followed by a strong reversal into a bullish engulfing pattern toward the late evening and overnight hours. A key psychological support level at $5.55–$5.565 was tested multiple times, with the price bouncing off this area on at least three occasions. A notable doji formed at the $5.64–$5.65 level, signaling indecision before the final upward push.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA and 50 EMA crossed bearishly early in the session but diverged as the price rebounded. By 04:00 ET, the 20 EMA crossed the 50 EMA to the upside, signaling a potential short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50 EMA and 100 EMA were in a bearish crossover, but the 200 EMA provided a strong base that the price avoided breaking.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in the early hours with a negative divergence, reinforcing the bearish engulfing pattern. However, by 08:00 ET, the histogram shifted to positive territory, aligning with the price action reversal. RSI dropped to oversold levels below 30 around 02:00 ET and climbed back above 50 by the close, indicating strong buying pressure during the late session.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands contracted significantly between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. The price later broke out to the upside, closing near the upper band, suggesting elevated volatility. The tight banding before the breakout indicated high probability for a directional move, which was eventually confirmed by the late rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly in the early session, peaking at 8,579 MOVR at 18:30 ET, aligning with the bearish breakout. Another major volume spike occurred at 22:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp recovery in price. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the most significant increases occurring during the early bearish phase and the late bullish reversal. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price during the key swings.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price retraced to the 61.8% level at $5.61–$5.62 before resuming the downward trend, and later to the 38.2% level at $5.64–$5.65 before the final rally. On the daily chart, a retracement from the recent high to the 61.8% level at $5.65–$5.66 marked a key support that prevented further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout system based on the Bollinger Band contraction and the 20 EMA crossover. Traders could enter long positions when the price closes above the upper band and the 20 EMA crosses the 50 EMA to the upside, as seen around 04:00 ET. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 50 EMA, and a take-profit target could be set at the next resistance level near $5.75–$5.76, which was briefly touched during the session. This approach would aim to capture the reversal momentum confirmed by both volume and momentum indicators.