Moonriver/Tether Market Overview – 2025-09-26

• Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) closed near session lows after a sharp midday drop.
• Key support tested at $5.20–5.25, with a temporary rebound to $5.352 observed in late afternoon.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, but volume remained mixed with no clear momentum breakout.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum early, followed by fading bullish attempts.
• Price action appears caught between key Fibonacci levels and psychological round figures.

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at $5.387 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between $5.156 and $5.415 over the 24-hour period, closing at $5.352 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume reached 123,544.47 MOVR, with a notional turnover of approximately $666,989. The pair saw heightened volatility and a bearish bias during the early part of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price traced a key intraday pivot at $5.315, where buyers briefly retook control before fading. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around $5.316–$5.238 during the early hours, signaling a potential reversal of the prior bullish trend. Additionally, a morning doji at $5.238 hinted at indecision. Key support levels include $5.20–5.25 and $5.15–5.17, while resistance is likely to be tested near $5.35–5.37.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, with price closing below both at the 24-hour mark. The 50-period line sits at $5.31, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is at $5.30, while the 200-period line is near $5.38. This suggests a longer-term bearish bias with potential for retests of prior support zones.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into bearish territory mid-morning and remained negative for the majority of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory twice, at $5.20 and $5.17, but failed to spark a meaningful recovery. A minor oversold rebound occurred in the afternoon, pushing RSI above 50 temporarily, but the overall trend remained bearish. This suggests that while short-term bounces are likely, the dominant bearish trend appears intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the morning hours, pushing price to the upper band at $5.415, followed by a sharp contraction into the lower band as price fell to $5.208. The closing price of $5.352 is positioned near the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a potential pullback to the mean in the short term. A breakout above the upper band is unlikely without a strong reversal catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early hours during the bearish break and again in the afternoon as price attempted a rally. However, these spikes lacked sufficient notional turnover to confirm strong conviction. Price and volume diverged during the rally attempt to $5.352, suggesting a potential false breakout. A sustained move above $5.35–5.37 may require increased volume and turnover to validate.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key intraday swing from $5.156 to $5.415, the 61.8% retracement level is at $5.305, where price found some support in the afternoon. The 38.2% level is at $5.273, which may act as a short-term floor. On the daily chart, Fibonacci retracements from a larger bearish leg place a key level at $5.30, aligning with the 50-period MA.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a break of the 20-period moving average during bearish engulfing patterns, with a stop-loss set just above the prior swing high. Target levels can be based on Fibonacci retracements and key support zones. Given the behavior of RSI and MACD, a trailing stop could be used to lock in gains on short-term rebounds. This approach would aim to capitalize on the dominant bearish momentum while minimizing exposure to false breakouts.