Moonriver/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• MOVRUSDT broke above 5.95, with volume and momentum suggesting bullish continuation.
• RSI reached 60, indicating strength but not overbought conditions.
• Price traded between 5.69 and 6.00 over 24 hours, forming a broad consolidation range.
• Bollinger Bands widened during late-night buying, signaling rising volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 5.93 and 5.98 are key near-term watchpoints.

24-Hour Summary

Moonriver/Tether (MOVRUSDT) opened at 5.7 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 6.004, and closed at 5.965 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 160,442.31 MOVR, while notional turnover amounted to $954,722.24. The pair displayed a volatile 24-hour range and a clear bullish bias from the late evening session onward.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bullish breakout from a descending channel established between 5.69 and 5.85. A 5.95 level was tested multiple times and held during the overnight session, forming a strong support-turned-resistance. Key resistance is now at 6.008, while the 5.931 and 5.93 levels represent near-term Fibonacci retracements from the recent 5.69–6.004 swing. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing candle at 5.96–5.99 and a doji at 5.95–5.96, suggesting indecision at critical psychological levels.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line in the early morning hours, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at 5.89, and the 200-period at 5.81, indicating the price has moved decisively above long-term support. The MACD showed a narrowing histogram and a positive crossover in the early hours, suggesting momentum remains on the buy side. RSI, at 60.2 at close, indicates strong but not overextended momentum.

Volumes and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 22:15–00:00 ET timeframe, coinciding with the 5.95–6.00 breakout. Turnover during this period was $283,425, or nearly 30% of the total 24-hour notional value. A divergence appeared during the 00:30–01:45 ET period, where price declined from 5.994 to 5.93 but volume did not confirm bearish follow-through, hinting at a potential short-covering bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-night rally, with the price closing near the upper band at 5.99. The 15-minute chart shows that the most recent two hours saw volatility rise from 2.5% to 4.3%. This suggests a shift from consolidation to breakout trading. A retest of the upper band could confirm a new short-term trend, but a close below the lower band would signal a reversal risk.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI above 50 and volume above the 20-period average. Stop-loss placement at the 5.91–5.93 levels aligns with Fibonacci and support levels observed in the data. Given the observed divergence in volume during pullbacks, a trailing stop or a take-profit at 6.008 may be prudent. This strategy could be tested across prior 24-hour cycles to evaluate performance under similar volatility and structure conditions.