Will Moog (MOG.A) Beat Earnings Estimates Again in Q3 2025?

Moog Inc. (MOG.A) has long been a standout performer in the aerospace and defense industry, consistently delivering earnings surprises that defy market expectations. As the company prepares to report its Q3 2025 results on July 25, 2025, investors are keenly watching whether this trend will continue. By analyzing historical performance, Zacks Earnings ESP, and recent consensus revisions, we can assess the likelihood of a positive surprise and its implications for investors.

A Legacy of Outperformance

Over the past four quarters, Moog has demonstrated a remarkable ability to exceed analyst estimates. For Q2 2025, the company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.92, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.80 by a 6.67% margin. This follows a similar pattern in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024, where the stock beat expectations by margins ranging from 1.2% to 28.9%. The consistent outperformance stems from strong demand in the aerospace and defense sectors, particularly in military aircraft and space programs, which saw 18% and 7% sales growth in Q3 2024, respectively.

However, the company's growth story isn't without challenges. The Industrial segment, which accounts for 27% of revenue, has struggled with a 1% sales decline in Q3 2024 due to weaker automation demand. Despite this, Moog's adjusted operating margin expanded by 210 basis points in the same period, driven by pricing initiatives and operational efficiencies. This resilience suggests that the company can offset weaker segments with stronger ones, a critical factor for sustaining earnings momentum.

Zacks Earnings ESP: A Green Light for Surprise

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for Q3 2025 currently stands at +1.27%, indicating a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate of $2.10. This metric, which compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, has historically proven reliable in predicting outcomes. Moog's ESP aligns with its track record of four consecutive beats, suggesting that the company's operational improvements and sector tailwinds are likely to persist.

The positive ESP is further bolstered by Moog's Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), which reflects strong earnings momentum and favorable analyst sentiment. While the company's trailing P/E ratio of 29.89 appears elevated, its projected 17.61% earnings growth over the next 12 months justifies the premium valuation.

Consensus Revisions: A Nuanced Picture

Despite the upbeat ESP, the consensus estimate for Q3 2025 has been revised 1.03% downward over the past 30 days. Analysts have tempered expectations in response to broader industry headwinds, including supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainties. For example, the 2025 EPS forecast was recently adjusted from $8.09 to $7.79, a 3.6% reduction.

However, this downward adjustment does not negate the company's potential to outperform. The revised consensus still reflects a baseline expectation of $2.10 per share, and the Zacks Earnings ESP suggests that actual results could exceed this by a meaningful margin. Moreover, Moog's 7% year-over-year backlog growth and $2.5 billion in 12-month orders provide a solid foundation for revenue and margin expansion.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the key takeaway is that Moog's Q3 2025 earnings report carries a high probability of a positive surprise. The company's strong performance in aerospace and defense, coupled with its ability to drive margin improvements, positions it to outperform the revised consensus. However, the downward revision in analyst estimates underscores the need for caution.

Long-term investors should focus on Moog's structural advantages, including its dominance in high-growth military and space programs, which are less vulnerable to economic cycles. Short-term traders, meanwhile, may want to wait for a post-earnings reaction before entering positions, as the stock could experience volatility depending on the magnitude of the surprise.

Final Verdict

While the aerospace and defense sector faces near-term challenges, Moog's operational discipline and strategic focus on high-margin segments make it a compelling play. The combination of a positive Zacks Earnings ESP, a history of outperformance, and a robust backlog suggests that the company is well-positioned to deliver another beat in Q3 2025. Investors with a medium-term horizon should consider this a buying opportunity, provided they monitor macroeconomic risks and industry trends in the coming months.

In the words of the legendary investor Peter Lynch, “The best companies to invest in are the ones everyone's ignoring until they start taking off.” Moog may not be the most hyped stock in the sector, but its consistent execution and undervalued potential make it a standout candidate for those seeking long-term growth.