MongoDB Gains 1.48% on Bullish Technical Signals, Nears Key Resistance

MongoDB (MDB) has seen a 1.48% gain in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of price appreciation with a cumulative 5.13% rise. The stock’s recent momentum suggests short-term bullish pressure, though broader context is needed to assess sustainability. Below is a structured technical analysis across key frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action forms a two-day bullish engulfing pattern, with the second day’s close above prior resistance at $321.53 (2025-10-01 high). Key support levels include $310.38 (2025-09-30 close) and $306.44 (2025-09-30 low), while resistance aligns with the 2025-09-15 peak at $344.30. A potential bearish reversal could emerge if the price fails to hold above $310.38, triggering a retest of the $306.44 support.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from 2025-10-02 data) is approximately $318.50, while the 200-day MA is around $265.00. The short-term MA is above the long-term MA, indicating a bullish trend. However, the 100-day MA ($304.00) acts as a dynamic support level. A break below $304.00 could signal weakening momentum, whereas a sustained close above $326.29 (2025-10-02 close) would reinforce the uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) crossed above the signal line on 2025-09-26, confirming a bullish crossover. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows K at 68 and D at 52 as of 2025-10-02, suggesting the stock is approaching overbought territory. A K > D crossover with a close above $326.29 may indicate a continuation of the uptrend, though caution is warranted if RSI diverges.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening from $280 to $350. The current price of $326.29 sits near the middle band, suggesting a neutral position. A break above the upper band ($344.30) would confirm a breakout, while a drop below the lower band ($290) could signal increased bearish pressure.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged on recent gains, with 3.15 million shares traded on 2025-10-02 (vs. 1.52 million on the prior down day). The volume-price divergence on 2025-09-30 (negative volume on a down day) may indicate waning bearish conviction. Sustained volume above 3 million shares per session supports the validity of the current rally.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has climbed to 62 as of 2025-10-02, approaching overbought levels. A close above 70 would trigger a cautionary signal, though the RSI’s recent trajectory from 45 to 62 suggests strong short-term momentum. Divergence between RSI and price (e.g., RSI peaking before price) could foreshadow a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-09-15 high ($344.30) to the 2025-09-17 low ($306.50) include 38.2% at $330.00 and 61.8% at $315.00. The current price of $326.29 is testing the 38.2% retracement level, which could act as a pivot point. A break above $330.00 may target the $344.30 resistance, while a drop below $315.00 would invalidate the near-term bullish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described RSI-based strategy (buying below 30 and selling above 70) aligns with the stock’s recent overbought conditions. Historical backtesting from 2022 to 2025-10-02 shows a total return of 12.4%, with a 57.1% win rate and a Sharpe ratio of 0.52. However, the strategy faces risks during extended bullish trends (e.g., 2022-2023), where delayed sell signals reduced returns. Confluence with moving averages and Bollinger Bands strengthens the case for selling above $344.30, while divergences between RSI and price (e.g., 2025-09-16) highlight potential false signals.