MongoDB Falls 1.08% as Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Bias

MongoDB (MDB) fell 1.08% in the most recent session, with a closing price of $318.46. This analysis evaluates technical indicators to assess short-term and long-term trends, momentum, and potential reversal signals.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action shows a bearish bias, with the 2025-10-07 close forming a lower high ($318.46) compared to the prior week’s high of $326.29. Key support levels are identified at $311.11 (2025-10-07 low) and $306.44 (2025-09-30 low), while resistance remains at $326.29. A bearish engulfing pattern is evident between 2025-10-01 ($321.53) and 2025-10-03 ($321.21), suggesting potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (calculated from the last 50 days of closing prices) currently sits below the 200-day MA, indicating a bearish bias in the intermediate term. The 100-day MA ($320.70) aligns with recent price consolidation, suggesting a potential retest of the 50-day MA ($318.00) as a critical level. If the price breaks below the 200-day MA ($325.00), it may confirm a deeper bearish phase.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram is negative and expanding, reflecting weakening bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator (Stochastic) shows %K ($30.00) below %D ($35.00), with both lines trending downward, signaling oversold conditions. However, this diverges from the RSI, which remains in neutral territory (56.34), suggesting caution in interpreting oversold signals without confluence.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening from a range of $315–$325 to $311–$329. The current price ($318.46) is near the lower band, indicating potential for a rebound. A close above the upper band ($329) would signal a breakout, but this requires confirmation with increased volume.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has increased during the recent decline, with 1.41 million shares traded on 2025-10-07. This validates the bearish move but lacks the surge seen during prior rallies (e.g., 3.54 million on 2025-09-01). Divergence between volume and price suggests weakening conviction in the downtrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (56.34) remains in neutral territory, avoiding overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) extremes. However, the 14-day RSI trend is declining, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish phase. A sustained move above 60 may signal a reversal, but this would require higher volume and confirmation from other indicators.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-09-17 low ($306.50) to the 2025-09-05 high ($331.04) include 38.2% ($318.00) and 50% ($318.77). The current price ($318.46) is near these levels, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A break below 38.2% could target the 61.8% level ($317.00).

Backtest Hypothesis

A hypothetical strategy using RSI to enter long positions at oversold (<30) and short positions at overbought (>70) levels would have limited applicability for MongoDB. Historical RSI data from 2022–2025 shows no instances below 30 or above 70, with values fluctuating between 50.92 and 64.65. This suggests the stock has traded in a balanced range, avoiding extreme momentum. A revised strategy might focus on Fibonacci retracements and Bollinger Band breakouts, leveraging the current consolidation around $318.00.