MongoDB’s AI Growth Hesitation and Atlas Forecasting Clarity Clash With Past Guidance

Date of Call: Mar 2, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $695M, up 27% YOY
• EPS: $1.65 per diluted share, up 27% YOY
• Operating Margin: 23%, up 200 basis points YOY

Guidance:

• Q1 FY27 revenue expected to be $659M to $664M, representing 20% to 21% YOY growth.
• Q1 FY27 operating margin expected to be approximately 16.5% at high end.
• FY27 revenue expected to be $2.86B to $2.9B, representing 16% to 18% YOY growth.
• FY27 operating margin expected to be approximately 19.5% at high end, expanding 100 basis points.
• Atlas revenue growth expected to be approximately 26% in Q1 and 21% to 23% in FY27.
• Non-Atlas business expected to see mid to upper single-digit growth in Q1 and low to mid-single-digit growth in FY27.

Business Commentary:

Revenue Growth and Atlas Performance:

• MongoDB reported total revenue of $695 million for Q4, up 27% year-over-year, exceeding guidance by 4%.
• Atlas revenue grew 29% year-over-year, crossing the $2 billion run rate mark, contributing $114 million in net new revenue.
• The growth was driven by strong demand for Atlas, particularly among large customers in North America and Europe, and the strategic importance of Atlas in customer applications.

Non-Atlas Segment Strength:

• The non-Atlas segment grew 20% year-over-year, marking the best growth quarter in the last two years.
• This growth was supported by significant multi-year deals in financial services, public sector, and technology sectors, indicating a long-term commitment from customers for mission-critical applications.

Operating Margin Expansion:

• MongoDB achieved a non-GAAP operating margin of 23%, exceeding the guidance high end by more than 100 basis points.
• This was primarily due to revenue outperformance and efficient operating leverage, reflecting the company's ability to drive growth while expanding margins.

Customer Growth and Strategic Importance:

• The company ended the quarter with over 65,200 customers, adding 2,700 in Q4, representing a 60% year-over-year increase in customer additions.
• This growth was attributed to strategic expansions with large enterprises and AI-native customers, solidifying MongoDB's position as a preferred data platform.

AI and Platform Enhancements:

• The number of customers leveraging vector search nearly doubled year-over-year, and those using Voyage embedding models also doubled since the acquisition.
• This trend reflects the increasing adoption of AI capabilities within MongoDB's platform, driven by diverse customer needs across AI natives, digital natives, and large enterprises.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management highlighted 'strong quarter,' 'record new ARR,' 'above a rule of 40 performance,' and 'encouraged by the growth we are seeing.' Quotes: 'We finished fiscal 2026 on a high note,' 'I am confident in the durability of our EA business,' and 'We are incredibly excited about the opportunity ahead.'

Q&A:

• Question from Raymond Linshaw (Barclays): At your big event in January in San Francisco, what were your impressions about developer buy-in? ... then one for Mike on EA next year had a bigger cohort and this year I'm just wondering if the strength in this in the second half this year was that earlier renewals for next year or is the cohort still in place
  Response: CJ: The .local event exceeded expectations with strong attendance, ~70% of attendees were new to MongoDB, increasing mind share. Repeats are planned. Mike: EA had a strong year with multi-year deals; no material change to renewal cadence, no major cohort impact expected next year.

• Question from Matt Martino (Goldman Sachs): CJ, maybe to start with you, you noted the transition for Cedric and Paul has been in the works for some time. Given that visibility, can you provide more color on the current status of the CRO search? ... And Mike, maybe for you, just a couple of major EA deals were announced this quarter. CJ talked about the renewed importance of on-prem. I guess under that backdrop, should investors be recalibrating expectations around growth for the EA business as we look out over the next couple of years?
  Response: CJ: CRO search is in final stages; looking for a strategic leader focused on high-end enterprise and AI natives. Mike: EA is strategically important and growing; investment to bring feature parity to Atlas; growth expected to continue.

• Question from Jason Nader (William Blair): For CJ, my main question is, how is your product and go-to-market strategy changing, if at all, ahead of the growing reality that agents are going to be the things that are spinning up most databases and not humans in the future?
  Response: CJ: Strategy is to make MongoDB 'agent-friendly' with machine-friendly APIs, autonomous scaling, and integrated platform for agentic workloads; roadmap includes innovations throughout the year.

• Question from Ryan McWilliams (Wells Fargo): CJ, great to hear about Anthropic as a customer at the MDB local event. Love to hear how you think about the opportunity for Mongo to grow within large AI natives from here... And then a follow-up for Mike. The Atlas seasonality in the fourth quarter seemed a bit lighter than typical. Were there any holiday impacts to the fourth quarter for Atlas revenue or any other one-time items in the quarter besides the Atlas and EA bundling?
  Response: CJ: MongoDB is not concentrated in any one AI-native customer; agentic workloads require scale and integrated platform, which MongoDB provides. Mike: Holiday seasonality in Q4 played out as expected with no surprises; bundling impact was unique due to a large transaction attributing more revenue to EA.

• Question from Carl Kersted (UBS): Let's stick to Atlas in the fourth quarter. couple of questions one was that was the two-point beat roughly the framework you would advise the street to think about going forward... you reiterated the medium-term guidance that you gave at the Investor Day. Maybe I missed it. I didn't hear the reiteration of the high teens total revenue growth. Is that still on the table...
  Response: Mike: Atlas beat was not indicative of future framework; Q4 performed as expected with less variability due to larger customer base. High teens total revenue growth guidance from Investor Day is unchanged.

• Question from Ty Kidron (Organic Cloud Open): ...I'm kind of wondering why low-mid is still the target for 27, why we follow this momentum in the fourth quarter and in the bundling and the feature parity you hope to achieve, that number is not higher. ... with the changes in the in the leadership on the go-to-market side of the CRO and the field. I guess to you, Mike, A, is there any more level of conservatism built in your guide because of this transition?...
  Response: Mike: EA guidance is cautious due to forecast difficulty on multi-year vs. one-year deals; feature parity will occur throughout FY27. Transition adds uncertainty but no material disruption expected; guidance already bakes in factors.

• Question from Carl Kersted (UBS): ...given some of the increasing inflection points that we're seeing in kind of the agentic coding space... has that in any way changed the dynamic of how fast or how quickly you think that the enterprise modernization could start occurring? And then And maybe just a quick follow-up for Mike to the point about the increased, maybe some of the surprising bundling, particularly with a large deal in the quarter. Is there maybe a little bit less visibility on specifically the Atlas guide for both Q1 and the full year...
  Response: CJ: Enterprise modernization remains relevant; AI tools help but enterprises still need MongoDB for reliability, security, and scale. Mike: Bundling is part of normal business; Q4 was unique due to deal size; Atlas visibility is improving, forecasting is getting better.

• Question from Tyler Radke: just going back to the ea and atlas bundling i guess i'm wondering were these existing workloads that that moved from from atlas to ea or was it sort of plans for new workloads just a higher bias on EA. And just curious, like, why do you think that customer in particular chose to do more on EA as opposed to Atlas?
  Response: Mike: Bundling decisions are customer-specific, vary based on internal plans. CJ: This customer uses a hybrid approach, moving some workloads between EA and Atlas; they are expanding their data estate with MongoDB and preparing AI-ready workloads.

• Question from Sanjit Singh (Morgan Stanley): So, CJ, I wanted to just get your latest thoughts on a couple of topics. Given that the business has been accelerating... do we start to see like the kind of AI part of the story start to play a bigger role in terms of the growth equation?... And maybe, Mike, you can hit on this. IT SOUNDS ATLAS CONSUMPTION CAME IN LINE CONTROLING FOR THE LARGE DEAL. MENTIONED LOWER VISIBILITY IN SECOND HALF...
  Response: CJ: AI is not yet a material driver for enterprise growth; it's still early for agentic workloads at large enterprises. Mike: Q4 Atlas performance was as expected; second half visibility comment is a general macro point, not related to specific signed workloads which are performing well.

Contradiction Point 1

Material Contribution of AI Workloads to Growth

Contradiction on whether AI is a significant growth driver now.

Sanjit Singh (Morgan Stanley) - Sanjit Singh (Morgan Stanley)

2026Q4: AI and agentic workloads are not yet a material driver of growth in large enterprises... The impact will come later; it's a matter of 'when,' not 'if,' but it's not a current growth contributor. - CJ Desai(CEO)

Will AI play a bigger role in the growth equation and become a more important factor in potential upside? - Tyler Maverick Radke (Citigroup)

2026Q2: AI-native companies and custom AI solutions are increasingly choosing MongoDB... However, AI was not a material growth driver this quarter. - Dev C. Ittycheria(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Atlas Growth Forecasting Confidence and Guidance Specificity

Contradiction on the level of confidence and specificity in Atlas growth guidance.

Carl Kersted (UBS) - Carl Kersted (UBS)

2026Q4: The 29% growth in Q4 was largely as expected. As Atlas has grown larger, business variability has decreased, and forecasting has improved. - Mike Berry(CFO)

"Should the two-point beat framework be used to advise the street, and what is the bundling impact?" - Karl Keirstead (UBS)

20251202-2026 Q3: The more specific Atlas guidance is due to a desire for greater transparency and increased forecasting confidence... Q4 guidance remains prudent due to predictable seasonal holiday patterns. - Michael Berry(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Assessment of Atlas Seasonality and Bundling Impact

Contradiction on the predictability of Atlas seasonality and the significance of bundling events.

What did Ryan McWilliams ask management during the earnings call? - Ryan McWilliams (Wells Fargo)

2026Q4: Holiday seasonality in Q4 played out largely as expected, with no surprises or deviations from historical trends. - Mike Berry(CFO)

Did holiday impacts or other one-time items in the fourth quarter affect Atlas revenue beyond typical seasonality and the Atlas and EA bundling? - Ryan MacWilliams (Wells Fargo)

20251202-2026 Q3: The company feels good about Atlas but remains prudent for Q4 due to unpredictable seasonal holiday patterns observed in past quarters. - Michael Berry(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Impact of EA/Atlas Bundling on Forecasting

Contradiction on whether bundling creates significant forecasting variability or is a unique, non-recurring event.

Carl Kersted (UBS) - Carl Kersted (UBS)

2026Q4: The large bundled transaction... resulted in an unexpected shift of revenue attribution towards EA... which slightly impacted Atlas's growth rate. - Mike Berry(CFO)

Can you describe the impact of bundling? - Alex Zukin (Wolfe Research)

2026Q4: The Q4 bundling was unique due to the size of the deal. The company will watch it, but it does not currently add significant variability to the Atlas forecast. Forecasting for Atlas has improved each quarter. - Mike Berry(CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Atlas Growth Performance and Visibility

Contradiction on whether Atlas growth is performing as expected or if there is reduced visibility.

Sanjit Singh (Morgan Stanley) - Sanjit Singh (Morgan Stanley)

2026Q4: Q4 Atlas performance was largely as expected. The comment about second-half visibility is a general macro observation... not a reflection of any specific workloads. - Mike Berry(CFO)

How are Q26 applications and workloads ramping relative to your expectations, given the lower visibility in the second half? - Karl Keirstead (UBS)

2026Q4: The 29% growth in Q4 was largely as expected. As Atlas has grown larger, business variability has decreased, and forecasting has improved. - Mike Berry(CFO)