Monero (XMR) Continues to Slide Amid Bearish Sentiment and Dubai Restrictions

Monero (XMR) is experiencing a significant decline due to heavy long liquidations, declining open interest, and regulatory restrictions in Dubai.

These factors are exacerbating bearish technical indicators like oversold RSI and negative MACD, compounding the downward pressure on the price.

The price of Monero has dropped below key moving averages at $353.19, facing potential further losses toward $318 if it breaks below the $387 200-day EMA level.

Monero (XMR) is down over 25% from its January 14 peak, driven by heavy long liquidations and declining open interest.

CoinGlass data shows $518,340 in long liquidations over the last 24 hours, indicating increased short-side dominance and heightened bearish bias among traders.

These liquidations and bearish indicators suggest that sellers are dominating the market, and the probability of a near-term recovery is low.

Dubai authorities have enacted restrictions on Monero and other privacy coins as part of their regulatory approach to digital assets.

These restrictions have limited market access and reinforced challenges for buyers, making it difficult for the token to attract new capital or stabilize its price.

Despite Monero's advanced privacy features, the regulatory headwinds in key markets like Dubai are making it difficult for the token to attract new capital or stabilize its price.

Why is Monero underperforming other cryptocurrencies?

The broader crypto market is also impacting Monero's performance.

The privacy segment has been the least-performing sector, with Artemis data showing a 26.6% drop in the last week, outpacing Ethereum's 26.4% decline.

This indicates that Monero is underperforming even compared to other bearish assets.

Monero's decline is also reflected in its derivatives markets.

The Open Interest for Monero futures has declined by 5.12% to $135.18 million, reflecting a significant reduction in outstanding futures contracts.

This suggests that traders are withdrawing capital by closing positions or reducing leverage, further supporting the bearish trend.

What potential recovery might Monero see?

Monero (XMR) is one of three altcoins that could potentially print a new all-time high in February 2026.

The analysis highlights a potential recovery after a sharp correction, re-emerging privacy narrative, and technical indicators suggesting diminishing seller dominance.

Monero is hovering around $437 after losing ground below the $450 support, with a decline of around 30% in the last 11 days.

Quick corrections like this often trigger concerns but can also create conditions for selling fatigue.

The Money Flow Index shows the selling pressure is nearing saturation point, so the downward momentum could potentially weaken.

Although the indicator has not yet entered the oversold area, the signals point to a diminishing dominance of sellers.

If demand strengthens again, XMR has a chance to start a recovery and reclaim the area above $500 by February 2026.

The re-emerging privacy narrative could be a catalyst, especially when the market is looking for assets with clear utility and identity.

In a sustained recovery scenario, the gradual targets are at $600 and $679, opening the door to $800 which equates to about 83% upside potential.

However, if the privacy narrative is not followed by strong fund flows, XMR risks flattening below $500 while maintaining support above $417.

This scenario suggests that while there is potential for recovery, it remains conditional on strong market demand and narrative support.