Monero Eyes $500 as Derivatives Markets Show Bullish Bias

Monero (XMR) price has risen 6% in the last two days, rebounding from a key support level at $418. Derivatives metrics, including a $92 million increase in open interest and positive funding rates, indicate a bullish market bias. Large whale activity in spot and futures markets, alongside technical indicators like RSI and MACD, suggest a potential rally above $500.

Monero has shown strong on-chain and derivatives-based momentum, with a $92 million increase in open interest for XMR futures. This suggests that new capital is flowing into the market. Additionally, the funding rate has turned positive since mid-December, a sign often preceding price rallies. The 50-day EMA at $416.42 is currently acting as a support, and a break above $497 could bring the $500 level into focus.

Large whale movements and technical indicators are reinforcing the bullish sentiment. CryptoQuant data highlights significant whale activity in both spot and futures markets, which often precedes price gains. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are also showing bullish momentum, with RSI above the neutral 50 level and MACD lines converging. A bullish crossover in MACD could further drive the upward trend. However, a pullback below the 50-day EMA could result in a decline toward $400.

Privacy-centric cryptocurrencies, including Monero and Zcash, are gaining traction amid growing concerns over financial surveillance and privacy. On-chain data shows increased adoption of privacy coins in emerging markets and among institutional investors. Zcash, for example, has seen doubled transaction volumes and increased retail activity on BNB Chain. However, regulatory pressures and compliance challenges remain a concern.

What are the key technical indicators supporting a bullish bias for Monero?

Monero's price is currently trading above the 50-day EMA at $416.42 and has risen nearly 6% in the last two days, a level historically been a key support area. This would indicate a loss of support and could dampen investor sentiment. Additionally, while privacy coins like Monero are gaining traction, they face regulatory and compliance challenges.

A new academic paper highlights key challenges in blockchain privacy technologies, identifying open problems in scalability, usability, and regulatory compatibility. Researchers from Mysten Labs, Yale University, and George Mason University noted that achieving full anonymity while maintaining efficiency and light-client verification is not currently possible in existing systems. These limitations could impact the long-term growth of privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero.

What is the broader market context for privacy coins like Monero?

Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, such as Zcash and Monero, are outperforming the broader market due to increasing demand for financial privacy. Analysts and researchers believe this trend will continue into 2026, driven by growing concerns over financial traceability. Wallet upgrades on Zcash and Monero have made private transactions more accessible, expanding anonymity sets during a period of broader crypto market volatility.

Privacy-centric cryptocurrencies are also gaining traction in emerging markets, where they are being used to circumvent capital controls and preserve wealth against devaluing local currencies. Dash has seen doubled transaction volumes as users leverage its privacy features. Privacy-centric tokens are also aligning with evolving regulatory frameworks, with Zcash's model being seen as compliance-friendly. This dual advantage—privacy and institutional alignment—positions privacy coins as a growing segment within the crypto ecosystem.