Mondelēz International's Q4/FY 2025 Earnings and Strategic Position in the Evolving Snacking Landscape

The global snacking industry is undergoing a transformation driven by shifting consumer preferences, macroeconomic volatility, and supply-chain pressures. Against this backdrop, Mondelēz International (MDLZ) has positioned itself as a resilient player, leveraging strategic agility and operational discipline to navigate headwinds. As the company prepares to release its Q4/FY 2025 earnings on February 3, 2026, investors must assess its ability to balance growth ambitions with cost constraints while addressing structural challenges in its core markets.

Earnings Performance: A Mixed Bag of Resilience and Pressures

Mondelēz's Q3 2025 results underscored both its strengths and vulnerabilities. The company reported a 5.9% year-over-year increase in net revenues to $9.74 billion, with organic net revenue growth of 3.4% driven by pricing strategies. However, this growth was partially offset by a 4.6% decline in volume/mix, reflecting weaker consumer demand in North America and Europe. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell 24.2% to $0.73 on a constant currency basis, a sharp decline attributed to record-high cocoa input costs and inflationary pressures.

For FY 2025, Mondelēz updated its guidance to reflect a 15% decline in adjusted EPS and 4% organic revenue growth, a revision from its earlier projections of a 10% EPS drop and 5% revenue growth. These adjustments highlight the company's struggle to absorb rising raw material costs, particularly in its chocolate segment, which accounts for over 50% of its revenue. Despite these challenges, free cash flow is expected to exceed $3 billion for 2025, with $1.2 billion generated in the first nine months of the year. Shareholder returns remain a priority, as evidenced by $3.7 billion in dividends and repurchases during the same period.

Strategic Initiatives: Navigating Consumer Trends and Macroeconomic Headwinds

Mondelēz's strategic focus in 2025 has centered on three pillars: product innovation, cost management, and market expansion. The company is prioritizing growth in core categories such as chocolate, biscuits, and baked snacks while expanding into cakes and pastries to diversify its portfolio. To address shifting consumer preferences, Mondelēz has introduced smaller pack sizes in the U.S. and maintained affordable pricing in emerging markets, where affordability remains a critical factor.

Cost management has been another focal point. The company aims to achieve $250 million in SG&A overhead savings in 2025 through productivity improvements. Additionally, it has adopted a disciplined approach to pricing, balancing inflationary pressures with the need to maintain consumer demand. These measures are critical given the persistent challenges in cocoa markets, where prices remain elevated despite expectations of moderation in 2026.

Mondelēz has also signaled openness to strategic acquisitions, targeting opportunities in four key areas to drive growth. This approach aligns with its long-term vision of expanding its global footprint and enhancing portfolio resilience.

Growth Potential and Resilience: A Forward-Looking Perspective

While FY 2025 has been marked by headwinds, Mondelēz's strategic initiatives position it to capitalize on emerging opportunities. The company anticipates a rebound in Europe during Q4 2025, driven by holiday-related activations and improved volume trends. For 2026, it projects high single-digit EPS growth, supported by moderating cocoa prices and strategic investments in operations and brand portfolios.

However, the path to recovery is not without risks. Consumer sentiment remains fragile, particularly in developed markets where discretionary spending is under pressure. Additionally, the company's reliance on commodity inputs-particularly cocoa-exposes it to price volatility. To mitigate these risks, Mondelēz must continue to innovate and optimize its cost structure while maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns.

Conclusion

Mondelēz International's FY 2025 performance reflects a company navigating a complex macroeconomic environment with a mix of resilience and pragmatism. While near-term challenges persist, its strategic focus on pricing discipline, cost management, and portfolio diversification provides a foundation for long-term growth. As the Q4 2025 earnings report approaches, investors will be watching closely for signs of progress in Europe and North America, as well as the company's ability to translate its strategic initiatives into sustainable value creation.