monday.com Q2 Preview: August 10 Could Decide Whether AI Hype Becomes Real Growth

August 10 is the next real test for monday.com's AI story

By August 10, before the open, monday.com will report Q2 results and show whether AI is becoming a real revenue driver or staying mostly a product narrative. That matters because Q1 already set a high bar: the company posted EPS of $1.15 versus $0.96 expected on $351.3 million of revenue, up 24%. After a quarter like that, another solid report may not be enough on its own. Investors now need evidence that AI can deepen spending inside existing customers, not just make the demo look better.

The bull case: strong customers, better margins

Bulls can point to the right underlying signs. monday.com said Q1 delivered record GAAP and non-GAAP operating income and record net adds of customers with more than $500,000 in ARR. If large implementations keep growing and margins keep improving, AI may help the company expand more effectively within existing accounts rather than relying only on new-logo growth.

The bear case: the AI narrative may already be priced in

Bears will argue the market has already rewarded the AI story. The real question for this report is whether AI translates into higher expansion revenue, better attach rates, or more consumption. If management answers that clearly, the bull case gets credibility. If not, the stock may simply trade against expectations that have moved ahead of proof.

The core question is monetization, not buzzwords

The central business question is straightforward: can AI help monday.com generate more revenue from the same customer base?

How management says AI should drive more revenue

Earlier this year, management launched the AI Work Platform with Native Agents and said the launch is paired with consumption-based pricing. In theory, that means revenue can grow as AI automates more actual work inside customer environments. If AI takes on more approvals, status updates, handoffs, and workflows, usage can rise. If pricing captures that usage, revenue can grow without selling an entirely new product to a new buyer.

That matters because monetization does not have to come only from new customers. It can come from deeper adoption inside existing accounts. monday.com says more than 250,000 customers are already on the platform, and it entered the latest quarter with 4,547 customers over $50k in annual recurring revenue. That base is the real testing ground. Large customers typically use many teams, products, and workflows, which gives AI more room to expand seat counts, automation usage, and suite breadth.

Why the economics could improve

monday.com also reported 110% net dollar retention rate as of March 31, 2026. That does not prove AI pricing is already working at scale, but it does suggest the customer base is still expanding internally. It also aligns with management's view that AI could support growth without headcount increasing in lockstep. If each customer generates more revenue while service costs stay contained, margins should have room to improve.

The main tension is that public plans still appear to be per-seat pricing. Bulls will say enterprise monetization can still come through broader rollout, more products, and higher consumption captured outside the public pricing table. Bears will say that if AI activity does not show up clearly in expansion metrics, the pricing model may still limit how much AI changes the bill.

The watchpoint is simple: listen for signs that native agents and consumption-based pricing are lifting expansion revenue from larger customers, not just driving curiosity usage.

What likely matters most on the August 10 call

Expectations are already higher than usual

By August 10, before the open, investors are unlikely to be impressed by another clean headline beat on its own. After Q1, the bar is simply for steady execution and a credible update on how AI is affecting customer spending. Even if growth is healthy, the stock may not re-rate if revenue growth looks like it is settling into a slower pace than last quarter.

What is likely priced in is competent execution, no obvious slowdown, and a believable AI narrative on the call. What may still matter for the share price is evidence that AI is changing purchasing behavior inside existing accounts.

The call checklist

On the call, the most useful signals are specific, not generic: - Expansion revenue: Are existing customers spending more as AI use grows? - Large-customer traction: Is the customer base above $50,000 in ARR continuing to strengthen? - Consumption and agents: Is management giving concrete examples of how native agents drive repeat usage or higher billing? - Margins: Does operating leverage remain intact if revenue growth slows from the Q1 pace?

My stance is simple: this is a show-me moment. On August 10, monday.com does not need perfection. It needs to show that AI is moving from demo value to wallet share.