Monad (MON): Navigating the 64% Bull Case and the $50M Long Squeeze Risk

The cryptocurrency market's volatility in late 2025 has placed Monad (MON) at a critical juncture, where technical and derivatives data paint a nuanced picture of potential breakout or breakdown triggers. With a projected 64% bull case and a looming $50M long squeeze risk, investors must dissect the interplay of price action, open interest, and ecosystem dynamics to assess the asset's trajectory.

Technical Indicators: A Tale of Two Trends

Monad's price action in late 2025 has oscillated between bearish and bullish signals. Over a 24-hour period, MON fell 8.74%, breaking below the $0.022 support level and signaling weakening momentum, as evidenced by an RSI14 of 45.54 and a MACD histogram of +0.0013 according to price analysis. A close below $0.020 could test the swing low at $0.0166, a level that has historically acted as a psychological floor. Conversely, a 3.26% rebound in another 24-hour window saw MON reclaim $0.022, with the MACD histogram turning positive and network activity surging to 1.6 million daily transactions and 76,000 active users. This duality underscores the asset's susceptibility to both speculative selling and fundamental-driven buying.

The 9-day EMA (~$0.0275) and 21-day EMA (~$0.0288) suggest short-term consolidation, while the 50-day SMA remains a dynamic resistance band. A sustained close above $0.035 is critical for bulls, as it would validate the base-case scenario of a $0.030–$0.045 trading range according to price prediction. However, the 14-day RSI's neutral momentum band (45.0–60.0) indicates balanced pressure, leaving the market vulnerable to either side.

Derivatives Market: Cautious Leverage and Position Concentration

Derivatives data reveals a market in flux. Open interest for MON futures fell by 17% in late December 2025, signaling reduced leverage and institutional caution. This aligns with broader trends on platforms like Coinglass, where liquidations, long/short ratios, and funding rates are closely monitored. While specific funding rate values remain undisclosed, the decline in open interest-from $6.67 million to $4.29 million on November 28 suggests traders are scaling back exposure.

Position concentration metrics further highlight bearish sentiment. The top 100 addresses reduced positions by 98%, and perpetuals winners cut exposure by 66.37%, indicating a flight to safety. A break below $0.028 could trigger a 25% drop, exacerbating liquidation risks. This dynamic is compounded by the lack of TVL in native Monad applications, as DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Curve dominate early ecosystem activity.

The 64% Bull Case and $50M Long Squeeze Risk

The 64% bull case, though not explicitly quantified in the data, may derive from a $135 price target cited in a Telegram-based report, which also mentions a $50M artist fund associated with the project according to Telegram-based analysis. While this target appears disconnected from current price levels (MON traded between $0.022 and $0.030 in late December 2025), it reflects speculative optimism tied to institutional backing and ecosystem growth according to market analysis.

The $50M long squeeze risk, however, is more tangible. Derivatives volume in 2025 reached $86 trillion, with liquidations exceeding $150 billion, amplifying systemic fragility. If MON's price plunges below $0.020, leveraged longs-particularly those concentrated in the top 100 addresses-could face cascading liquidations, creating a self-fulfilling bearish spiral. This risk is exacerbated by the 17% drop in open interest, which suggests reduced buffer capacity to absorb sudden volatility.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the key lies in monitoring three triggers: 1. Price Breakouts: A close above $0.035 would validate the bull case, while a drop below $0.020 could initiate a breakdown. 2. Open Interest Dynamics: Rising open interest during a rally would signal conviction, whereas declining OI could indicate a lack of follow-through. 3. Ecosystem Adoption: Increased TVL in native applications versus external DeFi protocols will determine whether MON's utility is self-sustaining.

The derivatives market's cautious stance-reflected in reduced leverage and position concentration-suggests a high probability of consolidation in the near term. However, the $50M artist fund and institutional support could catalyze a surprise breakout if ecosystem adoption accelerates.

Conclusion

Monad (MON) occupies a precarious position in late 2025, where technical and derivatives data point to both opportunity and risk. The 64% bull case hinges on speculative optimism and ecosystem growth, while the $50M long squeeze risk underscores the fragility of leveraged positions. Investors must balance these factors, using real-time metrics like open interest and liquidation thresholds to navigate the asset's volatility. As the market awaits a definitive directional move, patience and discipline will be paramount.