Momentus Soars 29.5%: A Strategic Warrant Move or Defense Contract Catalyst?

Summary
• Momentus (MNTS) surges 29.5% intraday, trading at $0.9896 after a $0.764 open
• Intraday high of $1.05 and low of $0.8281 highlight volatile session
• Warrant inducement transaction and defense contract eligibility drive speculation

Today’s explosive move in Momentus stock has captivated traders, with the stock surging nearly 30% in a single session. The surge follows a strategic warrant inducement deal and a breakthrough in defense contract eligibility, positioning the commercial space firm at the intersection of capital-raising and national security opportunities. With a 523% surge in turnover, the market is betting on a pivotal inflection point for the company.

Warrant Inducement and Defense Contract Fuel Volatility
Momentus’s dramatic 29.5% intraday rally stems from two pivotal announcements. First, the company executed a warrant inducement agreement, securing $3.7 million in gross proceeds by reducing the exercise price of existing warrants to $0.77. This liquidity injection, coupled with the issuance of new warrants, signals a strategic effort to stabilize capital. Simultaneously, Momentus was named eligible under the Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program, unlocking access to a $151 billion defense contract pool. These moves align with the company’s push to leverage its Vigoride OSV platform for missile tracking and secure communications, directly tying its valuation to high-margin defense opportunities.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Momentum
The broader Aerospace & Defense sector has seen renewed interest, with companies like SpaceX and Boeing securing major contracts. However, Momentus’s move is distinct: while peers focus on traditional aerospace, Momentus’s in-space transportation and orbital infrastructure services position it as a niche player in the commercialization of national security space operations. The SHIELD program’s emphasis on rapid deployment aligns with Momentus’s agility, creating a unique value proposition compared to larger, slower-moving defense contractors.

Navigating the Bullish Surge: ETFs and Technicals
• RSI: 54.33 (neutral, suggesting potential for further upside)
• MACD: -0.077 (bearish signal, but histogram shows divergence)
• 200-day MA: $1.46 (current price at 67% discount)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band ($0.907), indicating overbought conditions

Given the short-term bullish trend and long-term bearish structure, traders should focus on key levels. The 30-day support at $0.612 and 200-day resistance at $1.15–$1.20 are critical. A breakout above $1.05 (intraday high) could validate the rally, while a retest of $0.8281 (intraday low) may offer a second entry. The RSI’s neutrality and MACD divergence suggest a cautious approach: consider long-dated calls if the stock holds above $0.85. The absence of options data underscores the need for ETF exposure or cash-secured puts for aggressive bulls.

Backtest Momentus Stock Performance
The backtest of MNTS's performance after a 30% intraday surge from 2022 to now reveals mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of -0.63% during the backtest period, with a maximum return day on December 10, 2025, the overall trend was negative, with a 30-day return of -12.89% and a 10-day return of -4.71%. The 3-day win rate was 37.60%, indicating that the stock had a higher short-term gain frequency, but the longer-term performance was lackluster.

A High-Stakes Inflection Point for Momentus
Momentus’s 29.5% surge reflects a confluence of strategic capital moves and defense-sector tailwinds. While the 52-week low of $0.5357 and -0.76 P/E ratio highlight long-term risks, the SHIELD program and warrant liquidity create near-term catalysts. Investors should monitor the $1.05 intraday high as a breakout threshold and the $0.8281 low for potential support. With sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) down 0.19%, the defense sector’s mixed performance underscores the need for precision in positioning. For now, the path of least resistance is upward—provided the stock sustains its momentum above $0.85.