Momentus Plummets 43%: What's Behind the Freefall?

Summary
• Momentus (MNTS) trades at $0.4795, down 42.9% from its $0.84 previous close
• Intraday range spans $0.4457 (low) to $0.60 (high), with 9.75M shares traded
• 52-week low of $0.4457 now within reach as technicals signal bearish divergence

Today’s catastrophic selloff in Momentus has sent the stock into a freefall, erasing nearly half its value in a single session. The sharp decline has pushed the stock to its 52-week low, with technical indicators flashing red flags for short-term traders. Amid a volatile intraday range and a 40.8% turnover rate, the question looms: is this a buying opportunity or a warning sign for a deeper collapse?

Technical Divergence and Liquidity Crunch Trigger Sell-Off
The 42.9% intraday drop in Momentus is driven by a combination of technical exhaustion and liquidity pressure. The stock opened at $0.595, but failed to hold above the 30-day support level of $0.6107, breaking down to the 52-week low of $0.4457. The MACD (-0.0345) and negative signal line (-0.0783) confirm bearish momentum, while the RSI (65.5) suggests overbought conditions are unwinding. With the 200-day moving average at $1.4284 and Bollinger Bands indicating extreme volatility, the breakdown below key support levels has triggered algorithmic selling and stop-loss cascades.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Steadies as MNTS Crumbles
While Momentus implodes, the broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains relatively stable. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 0.24% intraday, maintaining its position as the industry’s most liquid and resilient name. The lack of sector-specific news or regulatory shifts suggests MNTS’s collapse is stock-specific, likely driven by technical factors rather than macroeconomic or industry-wide pressures.

Navigating the MNTS Freefall: Technicals and Tactical Options
• 200-day MA: $1.4284 (far above current price)
• RSI: 65.5 (overbought unwind)
• MACD: -0.0345 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $0.5273 (near-term support)

The technical landscape for MNTS is dire. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and all major moving averages (30D: $0.8093, 100D: $1.1525) acting as distant resistance, the immediate outlook is bearish. The RSI’s 65.5 reading suggests overbought conditions are unwinding, while the MACD’s negative histogram confirms downward momentum. Traders should monitor the $0.5273 lower Bollinger Band as a critical support level—if broken, the stock could test the $0.4457 52-week low again. No leveraged ETF data is available for reference.

Options Analysis:
• No tradable options contracts provided in the chain

Trading Setup: Aggressive short-sellers may consider targeting the $0.4457 level with tight stop-losses above $0.5273. Given the lack of options liquidity, cash-secured short positions or inverse ETFs (if available) could be alternatives. The key is to avoid holding long positions as the stock appears structurally weak.

Backtest Momentus Stock Performance
The backtest of MNTS's performance after a -43% intraday plunge from 2022 to now reveals a mixed outlook. While the ETF has experienced a maximum return of -0.31% during the backtest period, with a 3-day win rate of 41.95%, a 10-day win rate of 35.99%, and a 30-day win rate of 43.76%, the overall trend has been negative, with returns of -1.55% over 3 days, -4.72% over 10 days, and -3.88% over 30 days. This suggests that while there have been brief periods of recovery, the ETF has largely struggled to regain lost ground in the aftermath of the significant intraday plunge.

MNTS at Crossroads: Rebound or Ruin?
The 42.9% intraday collapse has pushed Momentus into a technical death spiral, with all major indicators pointing to continued weakness. While the RSI suggests overbought conditions are unwinding, the MACD and Bollinger Bands confirm a breakdown in structure. Investors should watch for a decisive close below $0.4457, which would validate the 52-week low as a new support level. In the broader sector, Lockheed Martin’s 0.24% gain highlights the stark contrast between MNTS’s collapse and the industry’s stability. For now, the message is clear: avoid long exposure and prioritize risk management as the stock’s trajectory remains perilously downward.