Momentus (MNTS) Surges 34.6% on Defense Contract Inclusion and Warrant Financing – What’s Next for the Space Stock?

Summary
• Momentus (MNTS) rockets 34.6% intraday to $1.0285, defying a 52-week low of $0.5357.
• The stock secures a $3.7M warrant financing deal and enters a $151B Pentagon missile defense contract.
• Turnover surges 540% to 129.2M shares, signaling intense short-term speculation.

Today’s explosive move in Momentus, a commercial space firm, has ignited market frenzy. The stock’s 34.6% surge—its largest intraday gain in years—stems from a strategic warrant inducement and a high-stakes defense contract. With a 52-week range of $0.5357–$11.70 and a dynamic PE of -0.79, investors are scrambling to decode whether this is a short-lived rally or a catalyst for a broader turnaround.

Warrant Financing and Defense Contract Fuel Volatility
Momentus’ 34.6% intraday surge is directly tied to two catalysts: a $3.7M warrant financing deal and inclusion in the Pentagon’s SHIELD missile defense program. The warrant inducement reduced exercise prices to $0.77, unlocking immediate liquidity while granting new warrants to an institutional investor. Simultaneously, the company’s selection for the $151B SHIELD IDIQ contract positions it to bid for urgent defense missions, including missile tracking and resilient communications. These moves signal a strategic pivot toward defense-driven revenue streams, contrasting with its historically volatile commercial space operations.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as Lockheed Martin (LMT) Trails Gainers
The Aerospace & Defense sector remains fragmented, with Lockheed Martin (LMT), the sector leader, posting a modest 0.26% intraday gain. While Momentus’ 34.6% jump dwarfs LMT’s performance, the broader sector lacks a unified bullish narrative. Recent news of the U.S. Army’s $1B drone procurement and SpaceX’s 560th Falcon 9 launch highlight sector-wide momentum, but Momentus’ defense contract and warrant financing create a unique short-term catalyst absent in peers.

Technical Analysis and Options Strategy for High-Volatility Environment
• MACD: -0.077 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -0.112, Histogram: 0.034 (bullish crossover)
• RSI: 54.3 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 0.907 (upper), 0.723 (middle), 0.538 (lower)
• 200D MA: $1.46 (resistance), 30D MA: $0.836 (support)

Momentus’ technicals paint a mixed picture. The RSI at 54.3 suggests neutrality, while the MACD histogram’s bullish crossover hints at short-term momentum. However, the 200-day MA at $1.46 looms as a critical resistance level, and the stock’s 52-week low of $0.5357 remains a psychological floor. Traders should focus on key levels: 1.15 (200D MA), 0.8281 (intraday low), and 1.05 (intraday high).

Options Analysis:
• MNTS20251211C1.05 (Call, Strike $1.05, Expiry 12/11): IV 65%, Delta 0.45, Theta 0.04, Gamma 0.009, Turnover $12.3M. This contract offers high leverage (55%+ potential return if price hits $1.05) and aligns with the stock’s short-term bullish momentum.
• MNTS20251211P0.77 (Put, Strike $0.77, Expiry 12/11): IV 70%, Delta -0.35, Theta 0.03, Gamma 0.008, Turnover $8.9M. A hedge against downside risk, this put offers 40%+ return if the stock retests the warrant exercise price.

Payoff Scenarios:
• Call Option: At a 5% upside (ST = $1.08), payoff = max(0, $1.08 - $1.05) = $0.03/share. With a 0.45 delta, this contract amplifies gains if the stock holds above $1.05.
• Put Option: At a 5% downside (ST = $0.977), payoff = max(0, $0.77 - $0.977) = $0.00. However, the 0.35 delta provides limited downside protection.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls should target the MNTS20251211C1.05 call for a high-leverage play on the 12/11 expiry, while cautious traders may pair it with the MNTS20251211P0.77 put to cap risk. Watch for a breakout above $1.15 or a breakdown below $0.8281 to confirm direction.

Backtest Momentus Stock Performance
The backtest of MNTS's performance after a 35% intraday surge from 2022 to now reveals mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of -0.62% during the backtest period, with a maximum return day on December 10, 2025, the overall trend was negative, with returns falling over 3-day, 10-day, and 30-day periods.

Momentus at a Crossroads: Defense Momentum or Volatility Trap?
Momentus’ 34.6% surge hinges on its ability to sustain momentum in the defense sector and execute on the warrant financing. The stock’s technicals suggest a high-risk, high-reward profile, with the 200-day MA at $1.46 acting as a critical inflection point. While the sector leader, Lockheed Martin (LMT), remains relatively stable at +0.26%, Momentus’ unique catalysts—defense contract access and warrant liquidity—could drive a parabolic move. Investors must monitor the 12/11 expiry for options activity and the 52-week low of $0.5357 as a hard stop. Act now: Buy the MNTS20251211C1.05 call for a high-leverage play, or short-term traders should watch for a breakdown below $0.8281 to exit.