Momentum/USDC Market Overview: Volatility and Mixed Signals in 24 Hours

Summary
• Momentum/USDC opened at $0.4374 and closed at $0.4337 with a range of $0.4243–$0.4562.
• Volume spiked to 474,804.1 at $0.4562, while turnover remained mixed with divergent price-volume patterns.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at $0.4272–$0.4317, but it was quickly tested and rejected.

The Momentum/USDC pair (MMTUSDC) opened at $0.4374 on 2025-11-12 and closed at $0.4337 on 2025-11-13, hitting a high of $0.4562 and a low of $0.4243 in the 24-hour period. Total volume traded reached 5,189,656.5, with a notional turnover of $2,298,523.08. The price action showed strong intraday volatility, with a sharp rally in early trading followed by consolidation and bearish correction later.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish divergence between price and volume around 05:00 ET, indicating weakening bullish momentum. A key support level appears to be forming around $0.4275–$0.4280, with multiple bounces and retests over the past 6 hours. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 00:00 and 00:15 ET, but failed to hold as the price broke below the pattern’s support range. A doji candle formed around 03:00 ET near $0.4330, signaling indecision and a potential reversal point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price by midday, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting short-term bullish bias despite the intraday drop.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into negative territory after 00:30 ET and has remained below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. RSI has dropped from 65 to 40, entering neutral territory but showing no signs of overbought conditions. A divergence is forming between RSI and price, suggesting a possible near-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply early on, with price reaching the upper band at $0.4562. By 06:00 ET, volatility began to contract, and price settled near the middle band. The recent retest of the lower band at $0.4275 suggests traders are watching this level for further direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at $0.4562 with 474,804.1 units traded, yet the move was short-lived. Turnover and volume have since declined, indicating a lack of conviction in the bullish move. A divergence between price and volume at $0.4317 suggests a weakening in the bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at $0.4390, while the 61.8% level sits at $0.4335. The current price is testing the 61.8% level, suggesting it may hold or break with further support at $0.4275.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent divergence in RSI and volume, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a short-term reversal trade around the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.4335. A hypothetical approach would be to enter a long position on a bullish break above this level with a stop loss just below the recent low of $0.4275. This strategy would need accurate RSI and MACD data to refine entry and exit signals. However, as noted earlier, attempts to retrieve data for the symbol “HOLD.P” encountered errors, likely due to incorrect or unavailable ticker information. To proceed, a valid ticker—such as “HOLD” for the Harbor Alpha Layering ETF on U.S. exchanges—must be provided. Once confirmed, this data can be integrated into a 3-day-holding strategy for backtesting across the 2022–present period.