Momentum/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped 15.5% over 24 hours, closing at 0.4661.
• A massive volume spike occurred at 23:45 ET, signaling a sharp bearish reversal.
• RSI hit oversold territory, and price is near 61.8% Fibonacci support on the 15-minute chart.

The Momentum/USDC pair (MMTUSDC) opened at 0.4972 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.5002 before plummeting to a low of 0.4530 on 2025-11-12 at 01:00 ET. It closed at 0.4661 at 12:00 ET. The total volume over the 24-hour window was 8,984,149.7, with a notional turnover of $4,309,044. The drop was swift and severe, with a bearish continuation evident in the 15-minute time frame.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a strong bearish bias after a large engulfing candle at 23:45 ET on 2025-11-11. This candle opened at 0.4777 and closed at 0.4688—a clear bearish reversal. Further downward momentum followed, with several lower closes confirming the breakdown. Key support levels are forming near 0.4661 (current close) and 0.4530 (daily low). Resistance is currently inactive but could form near the 0.4760–0.4800 range if a rebound occurs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are bearish, with price below both. The 50-period line is descending and could act as a dynamic resistance in an eventual rebound. On the daily timeframe, the 50 and 200-period averages are trending lower, with price below both, confirming a bearish trend. A close above the 50-period MA on the daily chart could signal a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing a sharp bearish expansion around the 23:45 ET candle. The RSI is currently in oversold territory (~25), which may suggest near-term exhaustion in the downward move. However, it remains to be seen whether the RSI will rebound or if a deeper correction is ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp drop, with price breaching the lower band at 0.4688. The current close is just above the lower band, indicating that volatility has not yet contracted, and a continuation is possible. A move back toward the midline would signal easing bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 377,619.6 on the candle that closed at 0.4688, the most active of the session. Notional turnover surged in line with this candle, confirming the bearish sentiment. Divergence is not observed, as both volume and price action aligned in confirming the move lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 0.4990 (high) to 0.4688 (low), the 61.8% level is at approximately 0.4733. The current close of 0.4661 is near the 50% and 61.8% levels on the daily swing, suggesting a potential support cluster. A break below 0.4661 could target the next key level at 0.4565.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish engulfing pattern on the 23:45 ET candle, a backtesting strategy could explore entry at the close of such patterns with a one-day hold period. Testing this approach on MMTUSDC could provide insight into its effectiveness in a highly volatile, lower-cap market. This aligns with the current analysis of volume confirmation and RSI exhaustion, suggesting such patterns may carry high predictive value.