Molson Coors (TAP) Down 12.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Molson Coors Brewing (TAP). Shares have lost about 12.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Molson Coors due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Molson Coors Beverage Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Molson Coors Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, 2026 View Soft

Molson Coors has posted fourth-quarter 2025 results, wherein the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the bottom line beat the same. Both net sales and earnings experienced a decline from the year-ago period.

The company’s adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share declined 6.9% year over year but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17.

Net sales dropped 2.7% year over year on a reported basis and 4% on a constant-currency basis to $2.66 billion, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.71 billion. The decline was due to lower financial volumes, partly offset by an improved price and sales mix, and favorable currency.

Molson Coors’ Q4 Details

Financial volumes decreased 7.7% year over year due to lower shipments across the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments. Brand volumes fell 4.5%, with a 4.3% dip in the Americas and a 5% decline in the EMEA&APAC segment.

Net sales were positively influenced by the price and sales mix, which increased 3.7% year over year, driven by a favorable sales mix and higher net pricing. Net sales per hectoliter (hl) rose 5.5% on a reported basis and 4.1% on a constant-currency basis.

Gross profit decreased 6.7% year over year to $968.3 billion, and the gross margin fell 150 basis points (bps) to 36.4% in the quarter.

Underlying earnings before taxes (EBT) declined 13% year over year to $296.8 million. On a constant-currency basis, underlying EBT declined 13.8%, led by lower financial volumes and cost inflation.

TAP’s Segmental Information

Americas: Net sales in the segment fell 5% year over year to $2.1 billion on a reported basis and also 5% on a constant-currency basis. The decline was due to lower financial volumes, offset by a favorable price and sales mix. Sales in the segment came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.1 billion.

The price and sales mix aided net sales by 3.5%, owing to a favorable sales mix from lower contract brewing volumes and a positive brand mix. Underlying EBT declined 19.1% on a constant-currency basis due to lower volumes and higher materials and manufacturing costs, including an approximately $20 million unfavorable impact from Midwest Premium pricing and ERP implementation costs. These pressures were partially offset by cost savings initiatives, improved net pricing, a favorable mix and lower MG&A expenses driven by roughly $20 million in reduced short-term incentive compensation.

EMEA & APAC: The segment’s net sales rose 6.1% year over year to $603.5 million on a reported basis and 0.1% on a constant-currency basis. Reported sales benefited from an improved price and sales mix, and favorable currency effects, partially offset by lower financial volumes. The price and sales mix improved 5.5%, driven by geographic mix, premiumization and higher factored brand volumes, along with improved net pricing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s sales was pegged at $600 million.

Financial and brand volumes dipped 5.4% and 5%, respectively, due to lower volumes across all regions, led by soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape. The segment’s underlying EBT increased 114.5% year over year on a constant-currency basis, driven by lower MG&A expenses from approximately $10 million in reduced short-term incentive compensation and targeted cost reductions, along with improved net pricing. These gains were partially offset by reduced financial volume.

Financial Updates for TAP

Molson Coors ended 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $896.5 million. As of Dec. 31, 2025, the company had a total debt of $6.29 billion, resulting in a net debt of $5.4 billion.

Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $1.8 billion in 2025. Moreover, the company generated an adjusted underlying free cash flow of $1.14 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

What to Expect From TAP in 2026?

For 2026, Molson Coors expects net sales to be broadly flat on a constant-currency basis, within a range of plus or minus 1% compared with 2025. Underlying EBT is anticipated to decline in the range of 15-18%, while underlying EPS is anticipated to decrease by 11%-15%.

It expects underlying depreciation and amortization to be $720 million, plus or minus 5%. The company forecasts an underlying effective tax rate of 22-24% for 2026. Underlying net interest expenses are anticipated to be $260 million (plus or minus 5%).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -31.69% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Molson Coors has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Molson Coors has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

#1 Semiconductor Stock to Buy (Not NVDA)

The incredible demand for data is fueling the market's next digital gold rush. As data centers continue to be built and constantly upgraded, the companies that provide the hardware for these behemoths will become the NVIDIAs of tomorrow.

One under-the-radar chipmaker is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. It specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.

See This Stock Now for Free >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research