Can Molson Coors' Restructuring Reverse a Souring Beer Market?

Molson Coors Brewing Company is navigating a complex period of restructuring and market uncertainty, with recent moves to cut costs and stabilize its core U.S. beer business amid a challenging economic landscape. The company announced plans to reduce its Americas salaried workforce by 9%, or approximately 400 positions, by 2025, a move expected to incur severance charges of $35 million to $50 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, in the company's restructuring announcement. This restructuring follows a strategic shift to prioritize profitability and shareholder returns, with CEO Gavin Hattersley emphasizing that the decline in the beer category is "cyclical rather than structural" and that the company has retained much of its market share in key brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

The restructuring aligns with broader efforts to address macroeconomic headwinds, including rising aluminum costs tied to the Midwest Premium and higher tariffs, which have pressured margins. Despite these challenges, Molson Coors reaffirmed its $1.3 billion free cash flow target for the year, citing favorable working-capital dynamics and tax benefits, according to Yahoo Finance. However, the company revised its full-year guidance downward, forecasting a 3–4% decline in net sales and a 7–10% drop in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, as noted by Yahoo Finance. This follows a mixed Q2 performance, where adjusted EPS rose 6.8% year-over-year to $2.05, outpacing analyst expectations by 12%, though net sales fell 1.6% to $3.2 billion, according to Barchart.

Analysts remain cautious about the stock's near-term prospects. TAP, the company's ticker symbol, has declined 18.9% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming both the S&P 500 Index and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, according to Barchart. The stock carries a "Hold" consensus rating, with a mean price target of $53.14—implying a 14–16.9% potential upside—from 22 analysts covering the shares, per Yahoo Finance. While five analysts recommend a "Strong Buy," others highlight concerns about the pace of cost-saving execution and the broader industry's struggles with shifting consumer preferences.

The company's strategic focus on reinvestment and shareholder returns has been underscored by CFO Tracey Joubert, who noted that robust cash generation supports both growth initiatives and dividend payouts, as reported by Yahoo Finance. Molson Coors' next major earnings release, slated for early February 2026, will be a critical test of its ability to stabilize profitability amid ongoing restructuring and macroeconomic pressures, according to Yahoo Finance.