Molina Healthcare's 4.92% Surge Driven by $290M Top-500 Volume Amid Earnings Deterioration

On August 15, 2025, Molina Healthcare (MOH) surged 4.92% to close at $166.99, with a trading volume of $0.29 billion—more than double the previous day’s level. The stock’s rebound followed a 10% downward revision in full-year earnings guidance attributed to medical cost pressures, despite a 23.63% average reduction in analyst price targets. Technical indicators showed the stock trading near its 52-week low of $151.95, with a 6-month drawdown of 39.17% highlighting structural risks compared to peers.

Options activity intensified ahead of the September 19 expiration, with 20 contracts traded. The MOH20250919C160 call option attracted 16,275 contracts traded, reflecting moderate leverage and liquidity for capitalizing on a potential continuation of the rally. Meanwhile, the MOH20250919P165 put option, with high gamma sensitivity, positioned traders for short-term volatility if the stock retested key support levels.

The backtested strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day from 2022 to 2025 yielded a 0.98% average 1-day return, with a total return of 31.52% over 365 days. This suggests the approach captured some short-term momentum but remained exposed to market volatility, with a 51.94% win rate over three days and a 57.93% win rate over 30 days.