Moderna Surges 7.7% on Strategic Licensing Deal and Pandemic Prep Push

Summary
• Moderna’s stock rockets 7.7% intraday to $33.34, hitting a 52-week high of $33.40
• Licensing deal with Nanexa for long-acting mRNA therapies and $54.3M CEPI funding for H5 flu vaccine drive momentum
• Options chain sees explosive volume in call options, with MRNA20251226C33 trading at 326.67% price change

Moderna’s shares are surging on a dual catalyst: a strategic licensing agreement with Nanexa to develop long-acting mRNA therapies and a $54.3 million CEPI funding boost for its pandemic flu vaccine. The stock’s 7.7% intraday gain reflects optimism around its pivot to oncology and rare diseases, despite a -4.89 P/E ratio. With options volume spiking and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the biotech sector is watching closely.

Strategic Licensing and Pandemic Prep Fuel Rally
Moderna’s 7.7% surge is driven by two key developments: a licensing deal with Nanexa to develop long-acting mRNA therapies using atomic layer deposition (ALD) technology, and $54.3 million in CEPI funding for its H5 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate, mRNA-1018. The Nanexa partnership aims to create injectable formulations with extended release profiles, addressing a critical gap in mRNA therapy delivery. Meanwhile, the CEPI funding accelerates Moderna’s pandemic preparedness goals, including a 100-day vaccine development timeline. These moves signal a strategic shift toward high-margin therapeutic applications and global health security, countering concerns over its declining revenue and weak 52-week P/S ratio of 5.4x.

Biotech Sector Mixed as Amgen Gains 1.6%
The biotech sector remains fragmented, with Amgen (AMGN) rising 1.6% on strong earnings, while Moderna’s rally is driven by specific strategic bets. Unlike Amgen’s diversified pipeline, Moderna’s focus on mRNA therapeutics and pandemic preparedness creates a distinct risk-reward profile. The sector’s average P/S ratio of 11.8x highlights Moderna’s undervaluation, but its 10% projected annual revenue growth lags the industry’s 130% forecast. Investors are weighing Moderna’s aggressive cost-cutting and debt load against its potential to disrupt long-acting injectables and oncology markets.

Bullish Setup: ETF and Options for Volatility Play
• YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF (MRNY): 5.2% intraday gain, leveraging Moderna’s volatility
• 200-day MA: $27.51 (below current price), RSI: 77.0 (overbought), MACD: 1.40 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $33.34 vs. upper band $32.29 (overshooting), suggesting short-term correction risk

Moderna’s technicals and options chain point to a high-conviction bullish trade. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA and 52-week range, with RSI near overbought territory. The MRNA20251226C33 call option (strike $33, delta 0.598, IV 47.35%) and MRNA20251226C34.5 (strike $34.5, delta 0.349, IV 47.20%) stand out for their liquidity and leverage. The C33 option offers a 326.67% price change with a 27.89% leverage ratio, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected payoff: $1.67). The C34.5, with a 63.15% leverage ratio and 71.88% price change, benefits from high gamma (0.158) and theta (-0.1117), making it sensitive to price swings. Aggressive bulls should target a $34.50 breakout, with a stop-loss near the 200-day MA. MRNY provides a leveraged ETF play, but its 5.2% gain reflects concentrated exposure to Moderna’s options-driven volatility.

Backtest Moderna Stock Performance
The backtest of Moderna (MRNA) after an 8% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows poor short-term performance. The 3-day win rate is 48.88%, the 10-day win rate is 46.65%, and the 30-day win rate is 41.07%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was only -0.18%, indicating that MRNA experienced a decline even after the intraday surge.

Breakout or Correction? Watch $34.50 and Amgen’s Lead
Moderna’s 7.7% surge hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $34.50, a level that would validate its pivot to long-acting therapeutics and pandemic preparedness. The stock’s overbought RSI and stretched Bollinger Bands suggest a near-term pullback to $31.19 (intraday low) is possible, but strong options volume and CEPI funding provide a bullish bias. Investors should monitor Amgen’s 1.6% gain as a sector benchmark and Moderna’s cash breakeven target by 2028. For now, the MRNA20251226C33 and MRNA20251226C34.5 options offer high-reward plays, but caution is warranted if the stock fails to hold above $32.50. Action: Buy C33 for a 5% upside or short-term hold near $33.34.