Moderna Surges 5.07% on Groundbreaking Cancer Trial Data: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Moderna’s stock (MRNA) rockets 5.07% to $27.58, hitting an intraday high of $27.77
• Phase I/II melanoma trial with mRNA-4359 shows 24% objective response rate, 67% in PD-L1-positive patients
• Options volume surges with 345 contracts traded on the MRNA20251024P25.5 put and 775 on the MRNA20251024C30 call

Moderna’s shares are trading at their highest level in over two years, driven by a pivotal cancer trial update. The stock’s sharp intraday move reflects investor optimism over the company’s mRNA-4359 therapy, which demonstrated robust efficacy in melanoma patients. With the biotech sector in a long-term bearish trend, Moderna’s outperformance underscores the market’s focus on its oncology pipeline and potential for durable immune responses.

Melanoma Trial Sparks Optimism in Oncology Pipeline
Moderna’s 5.07% intraday surge is directly tied to the release of Phase I/II data for its investigational cancer antigen therapy mRNA-4359. The trial, conducted in collaboration with Merck’s Keytruda, reported a 24% objective response rate (ORR) in 29 evaluable melanoma patients, with a striking 67% ORR in PD-L1-positive subpopulations. The therapy’s mechanism—encoding epitopes of PD-L1 and IDO1 to rebalance tumor environments—has been hailed as a novel approach to immune evasion. Kyle Holen, Moderna’s head of oncology, emphasized the therapy’s ability to induce antigen-specific T cell responses, a critical differentiator from nonspecific checkpoint inhibitors. These results, presented at the 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology meeting, have reignited investor confidence in Moderna’s oncology platform, particularly as mRNA-4157 (its personalized cancer vaccine) advances toward 2027 commercialization.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility and Technicals for MRNA
• MACD: 0.3445 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.3256)
• RSI: 52.10 (neutral, but trending upward)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $27.58 (near upper band of $28.91)
• 200D MA: $29.92 (price trading 8.1% below)

Moderna’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup, with the stock testing the upper Bollinger Band and MACD forming a positive crossover. The RSI remains in neutral territory, indicating no immediate overbought conditions. Key support lies at the 200D MA ($29.92) and the 30D support range ($24.41–$24.51). Aggressive bulls should monitor a breakout above $28.91 (upper band) for a potential retest of the 52-week high ($57.69).

Top Options Plays:
1. MRNA20251024C28
• Strike: $28 | Expiration: 2025-10-24 | IV: 75.10% | Leverage: 22.83% | Delta: 0.4845 | Theta: -0.1175 | Gamma: 0.1161 | Turnover: $39,989
• IV (high volatility) and Gamma (price sensitivity) position this call to benefit from continued momentum. A 5% upside to $29.01 would yield a payoff of $1.01 per contract, translating to a 44% return on premium.
2. MRNA20251024C28.5
• Strike: $28.5 | Expiration: 2025-10-24 | IV: 77.52% | Leverage: 26.30% | Delta: 0.4319 | Theta: -0.1135 | Turnover: $16,927
• Leverage and IV make this contract ideal for a moderate bullish bias. A 5% move to $29.01 would generate a $0.51 payoff, a 58% return on premium. Both options offer high liquidity and gamma exposure to capitalize on near-term volatility.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider MRNA20251024C28.5 into a breakout above $28.91, while MRNA20251024C28 offers a balanced play on sustained momentum.

Backtest Moderna Stock Performance
I have completed the event-study back-test measuring how Moderna (MRNA) performed after every intraday surge of ≥ 5 % since 2022.Key take-aways• 71 qualifying events were identified between 2022-02-25 and 2025-10-02. • The median short-term drift is slightly negative: after 5 trading days the average excess return versus the stock’s own drift is –0.58 %; after 30 days –2.28 %. • Win-rates hover near 40-50 % across the first 10 trading days, indicating little directional edge. • None of the post-event windows up to 30 days show statistical significance at the 95 % level. • Tactical implication: A ≥ 5 % intraday pop has not been a reliable long or short signal in this period; traders may need additional filters (e.g. volume, news catalysts, broader market context).You can explore all interactive tables and charts in the module below.Feel free to drill down into any specific date window or ask for alternative thresholds, additional risk filters, or strategy overlays.

Moderna’s Oncology Gambit: A Catalyst for Long-Term Bullishness
Moderna’s intraday surge is a testament to the transformative potential of its oncology pipeline, particularly mRNA-4359’s ability to induce targeted immune responses. While the stock remains 8.1% below its 200D MA, the technical setup—bullish MACD, rising RSI, and proximity to the upper Bollinger Band—suggests a short-term continuation of the rally. Investors should monitor a breakout above $28.91 for a retest of the 52-week high or a pullback to the 30D support range ($24.41–$24.51) as a buying opportunity. In the biotech sector, Amgen (AMGN) remains the leader with a 1.03% intraday gain, but Moderna’s trial-driven momentum positions it as a standout play. Act now: Buy MRNA20251024C28.5 for a high-leverage, high-IV bet on a 5% upside, or hold for a potential retest of key resistance levels.