Moderna Stock Plunges After Barclays Downgrade and UBS Price Cut

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares tumbled on Wednesday, falling 8.9% to $43.28, after UBS Group downgraded the stock and reduced its price target. The decline comes on the heels of a downgrade by Barclays, which cited policy risks, fewer clinical catalysts, and broader economic uncertainties as reasons for its cautious stance on the stock.

Barclays downgraded Moderna from "Overweight" to "Equal Weight" and lowered its price target to $45, reflecting its concerns about the company's near-term upside potential. The firm pointed to vaccine policy risks in the U.S., a lack of major clinical milestones, and the seasonal nature of the respiratory vaccine market as factors contributing to its downgrade.

In addition to Barclays' downgrade, UBS Group reduced its price target on Moderna shares from $108.00 to $96.00, maintaining a "buy" rating on the stock. The price target reduction reflects UBS' more cautious outlook on the company's prospects.

Moderna's stock price has been volatile in recent months, with shares trading as low as $35.80 in September 2024 and reaching a high of $170.47 in August 2021. The company's stock price has been influenced by various factors, including its Covid-19 vaccine sales, clinical trial results, and regulatory approvals.



Moderna's financial performance has also been a subject of concern for investors. In Q4 2024, the company's SpikeVax sales totaled $923 million, missing Barclays' forecast of $1.087 billion. For 2025, Moderna reaffirmed its revenue guidance of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, but expects only $200 million in sales during the first half of the year, primarily due to the seasonal nature of the respiratory vaccine market.

Moderna's management believes that the GBS case in the Phase 3 norovirus vaccine trial (mRNA-1403) is unrelated and does not expect it to derail the study. The trial remains on track, with Northern Hemisphere enrollment complete and preparations for the Southern Hemisphere's second season ongoing.

Insider buying and selling activity has also been a topic of interest for investors. In November 2024, insider Shannon Thyme Klinger sold 1,418 shares of the company's stock, representing a 6.71% decrease in their ownership of the stock. However, institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company, with some increasing their holdings while others took a more cautious stance.

Moderna's stock price decline reflects the market's concerns about the company's near-term prospects and the challenges it faces in the respiratory vaccine market. The downgrades by Barclays and UBS, as well as the company's financial performance and insider trading activity, have contributed to the stock's recent volatility. As the company continues to navigate these challenges, investors will be watching for signs of a turnaround in its financial performance and clinical pipeline.